Dollar expected to fall multi-year, according to JPMorgan Asset | Economy | The steps

A fall in the dollar is expected for 2019 and could last for years.

That's according to JPMorgan Asset Management, which predicts that the dollar could begin to fall at the end of next year, against a backdrop of a slowing US economy and a possible pause in the rising interest rate cycle. the Federal Reserve, probably in the second year. semester 2019.

"In the long run, the trajectory is that of a bearish movement of the dollar over several years," said Monday Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at the US $ 1.7 trillion fund manager.

"In the second half of next year, if the US Federal Reserve actually stops the increases, if the US economy slows or if the rest of the world stabilizes or improves a bit, the dollar could drop. "

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose nearly 4.5% this year thanks to Fed rate hikes and strong US economic growth; and JPMorgan Asset says the strength could extend into 2019. The dollar has risen from April, benefiting from economic pressures in Europe and emerging markets, partly because of rising tensions commercial.

"In terms of why the dollar has not continued to fall this year, it's not so much that [la economía de] USA accelerated much more than expected, the rest of the world slowed down, "said David Kelly, Head of Global Asset Manager Strategy.

The slowdown in US growth, a more cautious Fed and adjustments made by other central banks should be combined so that the dollar end 2019 remains unchanged or down from the end of this year, they predict. signature This does not mean that the company expects the transition to a weaker US economy to unfold smoothly.

If "the economy simply falls to 2% growth and maintains it, it's a scenario in which the dollar could fall for several years," Kelly said. "But if something happens that pushes the US into recession, causing another global crisis, it's pretty serious, so people could turn to the dollar as a safe haven."