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The firm predicts that the slowdown in US growth, a more cautious Fed and adjustments by other central banks will likely combine to keep the dollar at end-2019 unchanged or down from the end of this year. .
While in Chile, a product of a rebound in the Brazilian real, the dollar has depreciated. There is a fall in the dollar in 2019, which could last for years.
At closing, the local market exchange rate was $ 675.3, a decrease of $ 1.7 from the end of the day yesterday.
This in a context where tensions are reactivated by the trade war between China and the United States, after President Donald Trump announced that he would probably impose additional tariffs on imports from China.
According to JPMorgan Asset Management, the trend is widespread and the company expects the dollar could begin to fall at the end of next year, due to the slowdown in the US economy and a possible interruption of the rate hike cycle. of the Federal Reserve. , probably in the second half of 2019.
"In the long run, the trajectory is that of a bearish movement of the dollar over several years," said Monday Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at the US $ 1.7 trillion fund manager. "In the second half of next year, if the US Federal Reserve actually stops the increases, if the US economy slows or if the rest of the world stabilizes or improves a bit, the dollar could drop. "
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose nearly 4.5% this year thanks to Fed rate hikes and strong US economic growth; and JPMorgan Asset says the strength could extend into 2019. The dollar has risen from April, benefiting from economic pressures in Europe and emerging markets, partly because of rising tensions commercial.
"In terms of why the dollar has not continued to fall this year, it's not so much that [la economía de] USA accelerated much more than expected, the rest of the world slowed down, "said David Kelly, Head of Global Asset Manager Strategy.
The slowdown in US growth, a more cautious Fed and adjustments by other central banks are likely to combine to keep the dollar at end-2019 unchanged or down from the end of this year, the firm said. This does not mean, however, that society expects the transition to a weaker US economy to proceed smoothly.
If "the economy simply falls to a 2% growth and then maintains it, it's a scenario in which the dollar could fall for several years," Kelly said. "But if something happens that pushes the US into recession, causing another global crisis, it's pretty serious, so people could turn to the dollar as a safe haven."
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