Fantasy basketball – Fantasy NBA Daily Notes



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Thanks largely to their star frontcourt tandem, the Detroit Pistons beat the Cleveland Cavaliers to improve to 4-0 for the first time since 2008-09, while the Cavs fell to 0-5, their worst start since 2003-04, LeBron James’ rookie year.

The Pistons were powered by Blake Griffin, whose 135 points through the team’s first four games this season are the most by any player in Pistons history, and Andre Drummond, who posted his 22nd career 20-20 game (points and rebounds), the most by any player since he was drafted in 2012.

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The noise you hear is the sample-size siren wailing, but it’s still fun to cover our ears and note Griffin leads the NBA in 3-point percentage (62.5) thanks to sinking an absurd 15 of his 23 attempts from beyond thus far, including four of five last night. The logical progression in Griffin’s career path heading into this season was to challenge Stephen Curry for the title of the world’s greatest shooter.

Jokes aside, it’s impressive how Griffin has capably extended his range, adding new dimension to an already impressive statistical force. Griffin recently mentioned to reporters this was his first healthy offseason in three years, which could be contributing to this revival.

Drummond, meanwhile, is averaging 35 percent more shots per game than in any year of his career, which in part drives a massive 42-percent spike in usage percentage compared to his career clip. Seemingly a competent free throw shooter over a growing sample dating back to last season, Drummond is a bankable fantasy star at this stage.

If Motown is singing about their productive pair of stars, a far more ominous climate is found in Oklahoma City, with the Thunder still winless after losing a 16-point lead to the Boston Celtics last night. The last time the Thunder started a season with at least three losses was, well, when they weren’t even the Thunder yet — rather the Supersonics in the final season in Seattle (2007-08), when they started 0-8 and finished the season 20-62. Russell Westbrook is sinking just 9.1 percent of his 3-point attempts this season, while Paul George registered the team’s worst plus-minus clip last night.

As was the case for the Lakers this week, maybe an upcoming matchup with the Phoenix Suns can get the Thunder on track with some needed momentum. If I’d suggest any immediate response to this early-season swoon in OKC, it’d be to submit buy-low bids to the Westbrook and George investors in your league(s). Nothing has or will change about their rewarding respective roles — representing a pivotal distinction between valuating real NBA standings and the statistical goals we pursue.

With an eye on meaningful fantasy performances and relevant statistical trends, let’s dive into the night that was in the NBA.

Thursday recap

Highlights

Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons: 26 points (11-17 FG), 22 rebounds, 1 blocks, 5 TO

Blake Griffin, Detroit Pistons: 26 points (9-13 FG), 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 6 TO

LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers: 28 points (10-17 FG), 11 rebounds, 11 assists, 2 TO

Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers: 41 points (13-23 FG), 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 TO

Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic: 24 points (10-16), 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 TO

Lowlights

Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics: 6 points (1-8 FG), 3 rebounds, 1 TO

Gordon Hayward, Boston Celtics: 5 points (1-5 FG), 7 rebounds, 2 TO

Cedi Osman, Cleveland Cavaliers: 3 points (1-8 FG), 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 TO

Jonathon Simmons, Orlando Magic: 6 points (1-7 FG), 5 assists, 1 TO

Thursday takeaways

  • On the heels of this past Wednesday’s win over the Suns — the Lakers’ first of the season — Los Angeles and James are now enjoying some momentum. The Lakers outscored Denver 23-8 in the final six minutes of Thursday’s game after trailing 106-98 with six minutes to play. James tallied 28 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists for his first triple-double in purple and gold, becoming the fifth player with a 25-point triple-double with three teams in NBA history, per Elias, joining Baron Davis (4), Rajon Rondo (3), Jason Kidd (3) and Charles Barkley (3) in this unique club. It was James’ 74th career triple-double, four back from matching Wilt Chamberlain for fifth-most all-time.

  • Pivoting to the Nuggets, we’re beginning to find out who benefits from Will Barton’s valuable usage bandwidth as he recovers from surgery, with second-year guard Monte Morris averaging 15.5 PPG, 7.0 APG, 2 SPG and 1.5 3PG in 28.1 MPG the past two games. On a team without a traditional lead point guard (unless you count “Point Joker”), Morris, who averaged 9.5 APG to just 2.1 turnovers per game in his final three seasons at Iowa State, could become a savvy source for dimes and steals in the games ahead.

  • The Trail Blazers’ Damian Lillard likely merits more praise for his 41-point opus in Orlando, especially given the unique source of motivation he found on Thursday. Lillard told the broadcast team afterwards how a relentless heckler behind the basket goaded him throughout, eventually prompting the Blazers’ star to tell the fan, “We’re going to see what happens.” Well, what had happened was another Dametastic performance, including a franchise-record 34 points in the second half, as he tied Clyde Drexler for the most 40-point games in Blazers history (17).

  • The Celtics have the league’s second-worst offensive rating, with only the Thunder producing fewer points per 100 possessions. Then again, Boston is also tops in the league in defensive rating, providing the requisite positive net rating for success. But we mostly care about offensive efficiency as fantasy managers. So what can we make of Gordon Hayward’s sluggish start thus far? Hayward should eventually round into form and provide positive offensive numbers, yet my main concern is that Boston can almost glacially reintegrate him with modest minutes and a lower usage rate, given their deep and dynamic roster. It’s mostly a holding pattern with Hayward for now, one that could take several weeks to unfold, but it hasn’t been an ideal start.

  • I’m less concerned about Kyrie Irving’s sluggish start, but it is worth noting he posted one of the lowest usage rates of his Boston career last night. With some clutch playmaking down the stretch against the Thunder, however, it appeared Irving’s previously flat shot rounded into form, having entered the game with the second-lowest qualified 3-point percentage (18.2 percent) in the league.

  • The Trail Blazers’ Zach Collins posted a career-high 17 points and continues to press for more burn with quality performances from the bench. Sticking in Portland’s frontcourt, we find Al-Farouq Aminu ascendant on the glass, thanks to being tied with teammate Jusuf Nurkic and Kevin Love with 17.3 rebounding chances per game (defined as within 3.5 feet of an available rebound). The departure of Ed Davis might have helped create increased fantasy utility for both Collins and Aminu this season.

  • Go add Jonathan Isaac in your league if he’s available and you enjoy binges of defensive production with some shooting upside. The second-year breakout candidate for the Magic is so close to joining the elusive “1/1/1” club that signals a 3-and-D asset averaging at least one steal, one block and one 3-pointer made per game.

Injuries of note

  • ESPN’s Tim MacMahon reports James Harden has been diagnosed with a Grade 1-plus strain to his left hamstring and will miss at least the next two games. For some precedent to consider, Harden sat seven games last season with a Grade 2 hamstring strain to his left leg.

  • Marc Gasol is considered day-to-day with neck soreness after having left Wednesday’s game in the second half with the ailment. Jaren Jackson Jr. would become an exciting plug-and-play asset thanks to his deft 3-and-D skill set if Gasol were to miss any time.

Analytics advantage for Friday

While it is still early in the season, the Rockets’ defensive efficiency is a generous 114.2 points per 100 possession allowed when Harden is on the court this season, which would rank 26th in the NBA. When the bearded one is off the floor, the team’s defensive rating is 93.1, an allowance rate that would lead the league by more than four points. This isn’t at all to suggest the Rockets are a better team sans Harden, but rather we could see some improved defensive metrics emerge from Houston, beginning tonight against Chris Paul’s former Clippers club.

Top players to watch tonight

After having the best record in the NBA last season, the Rockets have started 1-3, including 0-2 at home. Paul returns from suspension tonight to face the Clippers in Houston and is poised for some big numbers with Harden ailing. With Harden on the floor with him last year, Paul’s usage rate was just 18.9 percent with a 26.8 percent assist rate. Those jumped to a 29 percent usage rate and an absurdly elite 54.4 percent assist rate with Harden off the floor last regular season.



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