Planetary “vital signs” show extent of climate stress – and some hope

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At the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games, records are set by the dozen every day. Globally, a different set of records are going down in history, but for the wrong reasons.

The number of so-called “planetary vital signs” reaching new highs and lows, despite the limitation of human activity due to last year’s pandemic, was highlighted in an article published earlier this year. week that followed a set of various climate-related indicators. change.

Glaciers are melting at a record rate; Sea levels are at an all time high and concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide in Earth’s atmosphere have never been so dense, data shows.

“I’m concerned. I’m alarmed. I feel like it’s important for people to see this data together,” said William J. Ripple, professor of ecology at Oregon State University and co-author. . “My conclusion is that we are mostly doing business as usual, with the transitional disruption of the Covid-19 pandemic… But were [already] go back to setting new records.

The article’s publication comes as the scale and frequency of recent weather events have led some scientists to conclude that global warming is to blame.

Among the indicators are anomalies in land and sea surface temperatures, which reached record highs in some areas in 2020.

As the oceans warmed to maximum temperatures, according to tracking data, their acidity was at the highest level recorded in seven years. Combined, these effects are known to bleach warm water coral reefs. And there are fears that the trend under these conditions will soon reach a “tipping point” – beyond which the destruction caused would be difficult to reverse.

One of the main concerns of scientists, highlighted in the document, was the lack of lasting impact that the Covid-19 pandemic had accumulated on “vital” indicators.

“Huge changes in behavior by humans in reducing energy consumption [as a result of the pandemic] had such a small effect, ”explained Ripple. “We have to think of a big transformative change at this point. . . yet we are still in a society based on fossil fuels.

Energy consumption from fossil fuel sources has plummeted as the pandemic nearly brought industry and services to a standstill in 2020. Yet global energy consumption from coal-fired power is expected to exceed levels d. ‘ahead of the pandemic this year, forecasts suggest, while energy consumption from oil and natural gas sources will rebound.

No less than 18 of the 31 indicators tracked by the group of scientists have reached recent extremes.

Yet not all of them can be viewed negatively – some offer a silver lining.

Wind and solar power consumption is expected to increase by a third this year, compared to 2019 levels, for example.

The value of global fossil fuel subsidies fell by more than 40% in 2020 compared to the previous year.

In addition, disposals of fossil fuel-related assets by pension funds, educational institutions, governments and other organizations continued to increase, reaching $ 14 billion in 2020 from $ 11.5 billion. dollars the previous year.

But, the authors conclude, the scale of current climate action is not sufficient to reverse the main worrying trends.

“We are in a climate emergency. . . a very dangerous climate emergency, ”says Ripple. “At this point it’s important that we do things that will have quick effects. ”