Brazil does not have the capacity to absorb US soybean exports to China

"There is no alternative: China will have to import at least some of the soybeans from the United States," said Gustavo Oliveira, professor of environmental studies at the United States. University of Swarthmore, Lusa, Beijing. PhD thesis focused on Chinese investment in Brazilian agribusiness.

Soybean is a key point in US-China trade disputes: it accounts for 10% of all US exports to the Asian country and is a vital sector for rural America, where many Voters are concentrated American, Donald Trump.

The country is expected to import 97 million tonnes of soybeans this year, according to industry forecasts, but has already canceled orders for hundreds of thousands of tonnes of soy in retaliation against 25% that are currently in effect in the United States, for a total of 34 billion dollars (29 billion euros) of Chinese products.

Brazil, which already exports 80% of its soybeans to the Chinese market, thus appears as the third player in the quarrels between the two largest economies in the world, the only country capable of replacing part of the American offer for in China.

In May, the South American country exported 9.76 million tons of soybeans to China, surpassing the previous record of 1.4 million tons per month, already reflecting the tension between Beijing and Washington.

However, Gustavo Oliveira felt that this situation was not achievable in the short term.

"Between March and July, most Chinese imports come from Brazil, because during this period Brazilian soybeans have already been harvested and exported," he said.

"American soybeans are currently harvested for export between mid-September and November," the Brazilian academic said. "It is from this period that Chinese importers mainly rely on US production," he added.

On the other hand, the ports of southeastern Brazil have already reached the capacity limit, which has led Chinese companies to develop ports and waterways to operate soybeans across the basin Amazon.

Oliveira however recalled that "any initiative to develop infrastructure to increase the export capacity of Brazilian production takes a few years to develop", while the trade disputes between Washington and Beijing "relate to a context very short temporary ".

The scientist has estimated that Chinese retaliation would kill Chinese importers and American farmers, but that the context "is not necessarily bad" for the big soybean trade groups.

"These companies not only have operations in more than one place, but they also have better market knowledge than the states and are well positioned to take advantage of what is happening," said Gustavo Oliveira.

The Brazilian academic therefore considered "very frustrating" that in commercial disputes people speak of "people with unique interests".

"The interest of an industry or some companies is not equal to the national interest: what is good for agribusiness is often bad for farmers", he said.

In the case of Brazil, he regretted that the country's dependence on soy exports made it "hostage" to the big companies in the sector, the dollar or the Chicago Stock Exchange and Chinese state policies .

"None of this is democratic," he says. "None of this takes into account the national interest of Brazil".

The professor of environmental studies warned of potential environmental and social impacts if Brazil decided to increase soybean production by 10% or 15%, in order to meet the Chinese demand.

"How many thousands of hectares will be deforested in the Amazon, how many thousands of families will be evicted from their land to expand agricultural areas," he said.