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Everyone loses with the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union, but some will lose much more than others, with the United Kingdom in the front line, estimates the International Monetary Fund (IMF ) in an analysis of the potential impact of Brexit in the European Union. In the EU27, the negative impact on long-term growth could range between 0.8% and 1.5% in the most pessimistic scenario, but the average hides an uneven impact: in countries with more related to the UK, as Ireland, the impact of Brexit could reach 4%.
In an analysis included in the regular analysis of the euro area, the IMF attempted to make its own estimates of the potential impact of Brexit by considering different scenarios, negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union are not yet closed.
The numbers, with the uncertainty surrounding even more the forecasts in a case where many will depend on the details of the agreement, conclude that most organizations have since said that the British have decided by referendum to leave the Union: everyone loses
However, behind this statement and the figures estimated for the whole of the Union, there are very different realities that affect
L & # 39; long-term average impact on economic growth in the European Union of the 27 indicates that growth will fall between 0.2% and 0% (Depending on whether the final agreement will be a "mild Brexit" (with maintenance of the Access to the single market but without a customs union) or a 'tough UK does not have access to the single market and the trade relationship is established by the rules of the World Trade Organization, respectively
But when the level of integration of each pay s can vary decisively, as in the case of Ireland, which should suffer substantial losses in each of these scenarios: 2.5% if the agreement is for a "soft breit"; 4% in the case of a "hard Brexit", that is to say the lack of agreement. This estimate is similar to the expected impact for the UK with Brexit.
There are two other countries in the forefront, the Netherlands and Belgium, which would lose 0.7% and 0.5% in the case of a Brexit '. and 1% in the worst case, significant figures compared to the average. Luxembourg, Malta and Cyprus may also be affected more than others.
These differences are due to the degree of integration of these economies with the United Kingdom and the IMF illustrates some of the most important points. For example, the United Kingdom is a leading provider of financial services in the euro area and one of the largest lenders in some of these countries. In the case of Luxembourg, UK financing flows accounted for 170% of Luxembourg GDP, 220% if Luxembourg's transactions with the United Kingdom were accounted for. In Ireland, the loans of the Kingdom are equivalent to 58% of their GDP.
These figures are even higher if one considers the portfolio of foreign direct investment between Ireland and the United Kingdom (both directions), accounting for 230% of Irish GDP. In terms of two-way investment flows between the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, this figure reaches 120% of the Netherlands GDP.
The estimates showed a disproportionate impact, but still paint an incomplete picture, the Fund recalls. . The impact of the changes that will occur with the UK's exit into the distribution chain is expected to affect the distribution chain and thereby affect more countries with lower levels of integration with the United Kingdom. in relative terms (as a percentage of GDP). This is the case of Germany, the largest economy in the euro zone and whose economy depends largely on its export capacity. Exports of products such as automotive, one of the characteristics of the German economy, may exceptionally suffer changes, but it all depends on the final agreement on the future relations between the two blocks .
The impact on both blocks is larger. of a period of stagnation of the UK's integration into the European Union following the adoption of the euro (which the UK has chosen not to adopt ), after the integration of the 2008 financial crisis of 20%
The IMF also analyzes migration flows between the United Kingdom and the European Union, one of the most prominent issues campaign for the June 2016 referendum, and explains that migration flows are weak, with the exception of some countries. Ireland, Cyprus and Malta are the countries among the Member States from which more people emigrate to the United Kingdom. On the other hand, the British emigrate mainly to Ireland, Luxembourg and Spain.
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