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Scheduled for next Friday, the parliamentary debate on the state of the nation should serve all parties as a sort of general rehearsal for the next election campaign – and also closer to the state's discussion in October . In PSD, Rui Rio's strategy is complex. If, on the one hand, he is preparing the vote against the state budget for 2019 – this is the most likely assumption, to say the least – he guarantees that he does not deviate by one millimeter from the trajectory that he traced until the 2019 elections, even though the party more critical, asks him for "blood" and more vigorous opposition to the machine In the coming months.
Refuses to say "bad of all", and the internal critic responds: "The party that I won, now I want to win the I am the leader of a party that aspires to power, this It's not a government crutch, but I have to make a responsible and consequent opposition, "said the Social Democrat leader in DN. He makes the deal that he has to do with António Costa – two are closed , that of community funds and decentralization, and he is repeating another on justice – and he maintains that he will promise nothing he can not hold.
Rui Rio is convinced that the The image of the socialist government of a "marvelous country" is beginning to become blurred for the Portuguese, and this will justify the budgetary direction and the critical position regarding the state of the nation. promises, for example, by eliminating the fuel tax or calculating career time teachers, is an example to illustrate a weaker economy than the one that is sold. "Even the most positive reduction in unemployment has come at the expense of low wages and declining productivity."
Playing against most of the PS …
The strategy of the social democratic leader divides the PSD, works mostly in the passista branch, which in the former parliamentary leader Luís Montenegro l 39; hope for the future if the sun does not shine Rio in the elections next year, both European and legislative. "Suicidal strategy for the party", which opens the door to an absolute majority of the PS, argues the critics. Many members of the parliamentary bench do not get tired, and will not be tired of counter-attacks. There are those inside who, although not aligned with Rio, consider the leader's strategy to be "right", but lacks "effective communication."
"The strategy of Passos Coelho de Bota – below, the devil comes here, failed, and with a blow in the last municipal elections", reinforces an important Social Democrat. If in the PSD, where "activists are tiffosi", this way of doing politics, softer, even austere, falls ill, "the Portuguese like," reinforces the same source. Rui Rio knows that it is "extraordinarily difficult" to win the PS. "But if you prevent the absolute majority of António Costa already has a result that will allow him to survive in leadership and play in the next four years."
The political scientist António Costa Pinto draws attention to the latest investigations that PSD. "This shows that Rio is not penalized for having a very different posture." The eventual departure of Pedro Santana Lopes from the PSD, with whom Rio challenged the live, to found a new party, would be an obstacle to the participation of the former mayor of Porto in the center-right electorate – he was en bloc and but few believe it happens.
The ideological alternative of CDS
In the PSD there is some fear of this growth and it is him that some of the critics of Rui Rio António Costa Pinto sees no reason. "Our system on the right has been stable for 40 years, one day it will change, but it is not the case now." Even among the Social Democrats, there are those who admit the kindness of a stronger vote in the CDS. "To dream of coming to power, the PSD must grow and the CDS too."
Unlike Rio, Cristas pacified the party. Part of the election battle of next year and for the government attack with the result in Lisbon, more than 20% of the vote, which place it in front of the PSD. "We know where we stopped, but if we do not set goals, we do not get what we want," says Adolfo Mesquita Nunes, one of the leaders closest to the leader.
Cristas has been listening to Portugal for eight months. According to the party's accounts, 45,000 kilometers were beaten by Asunción Cristas. All districts, all sectors of activity. This is no longer the style "Paulinho das fairs", with which Portas did grow the party in 2011 for the 24 deputies, it is more transversal. "Asuncion did a relentless local job to make the vote in the CDS uncomplicated," says Mesquita Nunes. He stressed that "this year, the CDS was the only party that did not hesitate to oppose the left-wing government". He never mentions the PSD, but it is implicit. "We are the ideological alternative to socialism, with a very different growth pattern," which is made "of alternative and concrete proposals."
The Asunción party will continue to attack Costa's government in the most fragile points, with the problems said Mesquita Nunes, for "the most vulnerable, but also for the most dynamic sectors of society that have need the freedom to go from the front. "
Taboo of the majority and doubt in the gerigonça
No PS the engines already heat – but nobody breaks the taboo: it is forbidden to speak with the absolute majority. António Costa pointed out that he wanted new agreements on the left, but for a few days he began to bill the paintings saying that "everyone has to prove this solution in this legislature for that there have a continuity in the next ". a party that has taken the party of appearing more and more removed from the government and selling very dearly its vote in favor of the next state budget.
In the days of the PS Congress earlier this week, Carlos César repeated a kind of ultimatum: BE, PCP and EPI behave with "responsibility" or risk of "electoral" isolation and "losing influence." ". The vice president and national leader Porfirio Silva, one of the main defenders of the current solution of the government, wants to remind the blocs, the communists and the ecologists that "the cement of this governmental solution is the PS". In other words, "a left-wing government is not possible without the base of this government being the PS" and it is an "illusion" to think that "there may be another force to replace the PS in this position ". In this context, it will be up to the PS to "speak on behalf of all voters and the result will be seen soon". And the absolute majority? However, social conflicts will tend to increase – as in recent weeks – and a lot because of the PCP's trade union influence. Here, socialists use nerves of steel to avoid too aggressive attitudes with the party of Jerónimo de Sousa and his electorate: "We can not evaluate the role of the PCP in democracy without enhancing its social integration", explains Porfirio Silva. The dreaded part, from the point of view of the PS (and the PCP), is its capacity for media agitation. Blockers intend to reinforce more and more brands of their own identity – for example through the fight against "excessive revenues" of EDP – but, unlike the communists, they are careful not to not have the air of the solution.
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