Posts from the 2019 Kentucky Derby in numbers

The Kentucky Derby, presented by Woodford Reserve, is legitimately considered the most exciting sports training of the two minutes; once the Churchill Downs Gate is open, anything can happen (and often happens). For 20-year-old thoroughbreds aged 3 years competing, it's one of the most important moments of their lives. the luck of the race can make or break their Derby race from the beginning. However, some of this luck comes into play a few days in advance: the luck of the draw of post-positions.

The Kentucky Derby posts are randomly assigned on the Tuesday before the race, but their influence on the race seems to be far from arbitrary.

The Kentucky Derby has been using a starting gate since 1930; two of them actually. One has 14 horses and the other, called auxiliary door, is attached to the outside of the main door and contains six other horses. This allows 20 horses to run in the race and the position of the horse in the door can have a significant impact on the strategy and possibly on the outcome of the race.

Instinct might suggest that the inland stations are favorable since the race near the rail is the shortest path around a circuit. This could be true in races with fields of 10 horses or less, but in the Kentucky Derby, 20 racehorses jump out of the gate and rush to take position before the field starts in the first corner. This means that there is a lot of clash and jostling when the ground compresses inside the circuit. And this means that horses already in the home will suffer, which could discourage them or hinder their positioning.

Horses outdoors are generally less prone to shocks, but if they do not cross the track before the first lap, they are left out. In the Kentucky Derby, towers account for over 40% of the 1¼ mile. Assuming that the width required for a racehorse and its rider is 4 feet, a horse runs more than 25 feet away. A six-lane horse from the ramp in both turns will run 150 feet farther than a horse on the ramp, making their race even harder. It's important to strike a balance between enough to gain ground and enough outside that a horse can easily maneuver to clear when the real start begins: the homestretch.

So, which position is ideal? Conventional wisdom says that somewhere in the middle of the door, No. 5-15 is preferable. Some coaches, owners or jockeys prefer the outside of the main door (station 14) or the auxiliary door (station 15) for the extra space they offer.

In recent years, however, it appears that external positions have been more successful, in part because of the overcrowded terrain of the past two decades. The average field size in Derby history is 13.2 horses, but the average field size since the turn of the century is 19.1, with no fields below 16. Nine of the 19 winners since 2000 came out of door 13 or more. Of the 70 races that used a door before 2000, only 10 winners broke from door 13 or more. Some of the recent winners were the favorites (Nyquist, American Pharoah, Big Brown, etc.) who might have won through an inner door anyway, but some did not.

Focusing on the auxiliary door, stands 15-20, makes the trend even more apparent. In Kentucky, Derbys played in 1999 and before, 38 used the auxiliary door and four Derby winners broke from there. Since 2000, the 19 participants have used the auxiliary door and 7 of the 19 winners have left position 15 or more. The success rate of the horses in the auxiliary door during this period is 7 for 96, or 7.3%. The horses at the main gate since 2000 have gone from 12 to 266 for a success rate of 4.5 percent.

Confirmation of this trend towards external positions occurs when one examines the success (or lack of success) of internal positions. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby since Gate 1 since Ferdinand in 1986. The only horse to have won 1, 2 or 3 since then is Real Quiet, the 1998 Derby winner who was only scared to win the Triple Crown. Prior to 1987, 19 of the 58 horses that left these gates were won, giving them a 10.9% win rate. Since 1987, the victory rate for positions 1, 2 or 3 is only 1.08% (1 in 93).

Other interesting statistics after the position include an 11.2% win rate for Gate 5, the same position as the 2017 winner, Always Dreaming, and the 2014 winner, California Chrome, and a win rate of 0% for Gate 17. No horse has ever won this victory. post position, and the last time Gate 17 produced a horse that finished in the top five was 2005. Top three? 1988, when Forty Niner was second. Gate 14 has only two winners and has been without a win since 1961. On the winning side, Gate 10 produces Derby winners at 11%, and the horses end up in the top three in the 29.3 category. % time. .

Get statistics on all the posts below. This year's contenders will be added after Tuesday's draw.