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With Honolulu and Hawaii counties already in the midst of a wave of new daily coronavirus cases, Maui County is next, according to a forecast from the Applied Pandemic Modeling Task Force. ‘Hawaii.
Based on the latest forecast model released on Sunday, the number of new daily infections in Maui County is expected to increase by more than 30% over the next seven days and peak at 175 cases on September 1.
Maui is about two weeks behind Honolulu County, according to forecasts, but is showing signs of catching up.
Today, the Hawaii Department of Health reported one new death and 96 new confirmed and probable infections in Maui, two in Molokai and two in Lanai. The 7-day average of new cases for Maui County is 84.45% higher than August 10, with a positivity rate of 7.4%.
“When it comes to COVID, it’s obvious that the Eye of the Storm is here for Oahu and the Big Island, but for Maui, they’re getting close to the Eye,” HiPAM co-chair Thomas Lee said. “The initial part of the eye may be passing over them, but they have the ability, if they act now, to significantly reduce the impact.”
The number of hospitalizations in Maui is expected to follow, according to a second forecast model, and is expected to increase by about 25% to 76 on September 1.
There has been no sign of the spread slowing down, Lee said, but the course of this storm of coronavirus cases may still change with mitigation measures.
Models are based on current data available, as well as science and trends, and are adjusted whenever there is a major change in vaccination rates or policy, which is an ever-changing situation, did he declare.
Each county is different, but what was factored into the models is that Maui County has the lowest vaccination rate of the four major counties, with only 56% of the island’s population being fully vaccinated.
But the prediction may change, he said, if the behavior of Maui residents changes, if more people get vaccinated or avoid congregating to avoid more relapses and hospitalizations.
An increase in the vaccination rate from 5% to 6% for Maui County could have a huge impact on the current forecasting model, he said.
The delta variant “changed the math” on the rules and regulations that came out during the pandemic last year.
“It replicates faster than last year’s strain, and even fully vaccinated individuals can have a similar viral load,” he said.
Masking remains a very important prevention tool. High-quality face masks can further reduce the risk, especially for those who are not vaccinated against COVID-19, he said. This applies to meetings outdoors, face to face, as well as indoors.
“If you are vaccinated you should always wear a mask,” he said. “Masking in combination with vaccines, reducing the size of gatherings, it all works together to reduce transmission.”
Maui Mayor Michael Victorino on Tuesday urged residents to get vaccinated, especially with full Food and Drug Administration approval of the Pfizer vaccine for people 16 years of age and older.
He also urged residents and visitors to voluntarily restrict non-essential activities and gatherings over the next 21 days. He asked visitors to stay in their hotels and not to walk or congregate outside the bubbles of their resort, especially not to travel to Hana. He also called on employers to consider reinstating work-from-home policies.
“It’s not rocket science, everyone,” said Victorino. ” It is very simple. We still have to accelerate. “
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