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For Alistair Overeem, it is time to break the pattern of taking two steps forward and one step back.
That’s the plan anyway as Overeem heads to his fifth straight headlining opportunity on Saturday at UFC Vegas 18. He’s been on that path before for the past few years, winning back-to-back fights to put himself on the line. on the verge of another heavyweight title shot to take a loss – often brutally – it sends him back to the middle of the field of contenders.
Former Bellator champion Alexander Volkov is the latest fighter to be placed in the style of Overeem, an eternal contender who has the chops to stand up and chat with the 2010 K-1 Grand Prix winner. really is the last race for Overeem, Volkov could be the challenge that presents a reality test for “The Reem” as he nears his 41st birthday.
The stakes are also high in the co-main event as bantamweight contender Cory Sandhagen takes on former lightweight champion and longtime featherweight contender Frankie Edgar. Sandhagen has proven he is at the top of the class among the current generation of 135 talented people and he is now looking to add a living legend to his resume. Bet against Edgar at your own risk. The New Jersey native has thrived when the game is against him.
In another main card action, lightweight veterans Michael Johnson and Clay Guida aim to break their slippage, flyweight contender Alexandre Pantoja welcomes UFC champion RIZIN Manel Kape, Cody Stamann meets short-notice replacement Askar Askar in a featherweight fight, and lightweight Diego Ferreira and Beneil Dariush fight for the second time in what could be a potential show stealer.
What: UFC Vegas 18
Or: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday February 6. The preliminary seven-fight card begins at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN +, with the main six-fight card starting at 8 p.m. ET also on ESPN +.
Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov
Skill for skill, I prefer Alistair Overeem in this game.
Hitting is Alexander Volkov’s strong suit to be sure, and he’s a formidable stand-up fighter with an 81-inch reach that’s impressive even at heavyweights. More importantly, he knows how to use it. Whether he’s stabbing opponents with jabs or setting up a straight shot, Volkov knows how to frustrate and then finish off his enemies.
That said, Overeem is still one of the most skilled attackers in MMA pound for pound. He has been hardened by decades of experience in combat sports and there is nothing he has not seen. It’s just a matter of running for him … well, that and avoiding the ever-present threat of knockout that comes with territory at heavyweights.
I actually like that Volkov is more of a late finisher than a quick hitter as it will serve him well if he gets behind in the early rounds, which I expect. Overeem won’t just stick with his strike, he’ll use his often overlooked grappling skills to quell Volkov’s attack and lead the ground fight where Volkov sometimes struggled. It’s the fight that will help Overeem secure rounds in a fight that I predict will go all the way.
Replace by decision.
To choose: Overeem
Cory Sandhagen vs. Frankie Edgar
Regular readers of the predictions will know that I’m a shameless Frankie Edgar fanboy and always pick him to win. I chose him to beat The Korean Zombie. I chose him to beat Max Holloway. I have been steadfast with it.
Guess what? I waver.
This might seem like an odd pivot considering Cory Sandhagen doesn’t have the name of some of Edgar’s previous opponents, but I think he catches up with Edgar at the right time. Even though Edgar has retained much of his speed and stamina at 39, even the slightest loss of a step can cost you in this game, especially when you have a constant stream of hungry newcomers nibbling at your heels.
Sandhagen’s long-range and unorthodox hitting style will be a nightmare for little Edgar. To Edgar’s credit, he’s always played the part of David, and he also has one tool to counter Sandhagen: his wrestling. If Edgar turns this into a scramble and teardown battle, maybe he could just wear Sandhagen and make openings for his boxing up close.
We’ll find out early on how good the defense against Sandhagen’s withdrawal is, because if he can avoid being held down it changes the whole complexion of the game. I think he remains standing and keeps this gripping duel, which he will win.
To choose: Sandhagen
Michael Johnson vs. Clay Guida
Listen, we talk all the time about how Michael Johnson is one of MMA’s biggest puzzles, a talented fighter with a litany of notable names on his win list including Dustin Poirier and Tony Ferguson. His mental failings and disappointing losses are well documented. But he should be able to stay the course against Clay Guida.
“The Carpenter” is a fierce and tough competitor to take down, but you also know what he brings to the table now in terms of skills. He’s not going to be winning a GLORY kickboxing fight anytime soon and his fight, while effective, is also more of a way to gain control than deal damage. Johnson also has a solid background in wrestling and should be able to avoid having to fight in the back for long periods.
This means it should be challenged primarily in the stand-up, and you have to love Johnson’s speed and technique there. He will box Guida for three rounds, avoid takedowns and win a comfortable decision.
To choose: Johnson
Alexandre Pantoja c. Manel Kape
The hype is very real when it comes to Manel Kape. Long considered a dangerous, albeit inconsistent fighter, he cried in 2019 with three straight knockouts that resulted in Kape claiming a vacant RIZIN bantamweight championship with a victory over the much-vaunted Kai Asakura. His UFC debut was twice delayed (and his participation was unsuccessful at UFC 256 after successfully playing as an alternative for the Deiveson Figueiredo flyweight title fight against Brandon Moreno) , so he’s ready to go.
The matchmakers have done Kape a disservice by matching him up with Alexandre Pantoja. Although Pantoja has only one win in his last three outings, he’s also never been finished and he’s a prolific finisher in his own right. This is great news for fans who are expecting some action as he won’t hesitate to engage with Kape. However, his game plan probably also involves using his excellent wrestling skills.
Kape is going to be a guy no one wants to fight at 125 for a while, but Pantoja has the skills to negate his attack. Choosing him to win has more to do with how I view Pantoja’s skills than with any particular shortcomings on Kape’s part.
Pantoja by submission.
To choose: Pantoja
Cody Stamann versus. Soldiers Soldiers
Stepping in on less than a week’s notice for Andre Ewell, Askar Askar is a fun stylistic match for Cody Stamann. He brings a reach of almost 70 inches to his UFC debut, as well as an aggressive demeanor that is sure to make Dana White happy. Like Stamann, Askar’s first option will be to take the fight to the ground, which should lead to some entertaining scrambles and tense moments for the veteran bantamweight.
I lean towards Stamann for the athletic advantage as well as his advantage in the octagonal experience. He’s on the cusp of making the top 10 for quite some time now and just hasn’t been able to string wins together, but he’s still a big step forward in the competition for Askar. Having to compete with so little preparation is also going to hurt Askar’s chances, although the 145-pound fight will make things easier for both men.
Askar will perform well and secure himself another UFC reservation, next time against an opponent closer to his experience level, but Stamann wins this go-around on points.
To choose: Stamann
Diego Ferreira vs. Beneil Dariush
The first meeting between Diego Ferreira and Beneil Dariush was over six years ago, making it almost useless in gauging each fighter’s chances in the rematch. Still, there is some data to be gleaned from Dariush’s victory over Ferreira, even as the two improved on their already considerable strengths.
Their shared wrestling expertise led to a certain stalemate on the pitch when they fought, with Dariush working patiently from the top position and avoiding Ferreira’s submissions. Look for Ferreira to consider being the one to initiate the fight this time around, if only to give Dariush something to think about. Dariush controlled the strike in the first fight, beating Ferreira with the punch as Ferreira looked for a fatal blow that never came.
Ferreira has become so much more complete, the question is whether he can win a kickboxing match with Dariush if it comes down to that? He’s made notable strides in typing both in terms of efficiency and creativity. Then again, Dariush is also more comfortable on the feet and has added some real knockout power to his arsenal. It’s such a close fight.
If I have to choose, I will go Dariush, although the margin of victory will be smaller than before.
To choose: Dariush
Preliminaries
Mike Rodriguez beats. Danilo Marques
Timur Valiev beats. Martin day
Devonte Smith defeats. Justin jaynes
Joselyne Edwards defeats. Karol Rosa
Lara Procopio beats. Molly mccann
Youssef Zalal beats. Seung Woo Choi
Ode Osbourne beats. Jerome Rivera
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