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OHSU respiratory therapist Jenn Ellingson is among the health workers caring for critically ill COVID-19 patients. A new forecast from the OHSU indicates that the number of people hospitalized statewide with COVID-19 will peak by Monday. (OHSU / Erin Hoover Barnett)
Oregon’s healthcare systems will continue to come under severe pressure from an unprecedented rise in COVID-19 infections, with the maximum number of hospitalizations expected to arrive on Monday, September 6, according to an updated forecast from the ‘Oregon Health & Science University.
Peter Graven, Ph.D.
“We are in a dire state, but I see signs that this will stabilize next week,” said Peter Graven, Ph.D., head of scientific data in the Business Intelligence unit of the OHSU. “We are seeing evidence that people have changed their behavior to protect themselves and others, and this will have to continue if we are to be able to free up space in our hospitals.”
Graven’s data shows that masking rates have reached around 80% and Oregonians have refrained from congregating in indoor markets, grocery stores, bars, and in large groups. In addition, more people are getting vaccinated in response to the alarming increase in the number of critically ill Oregonians.
Graven’s new update projects a peak of 1,208 people hospitalized statewide as of Monday, September 6. That’s a slight increase from his previous forecast a week ago and slightly more than the 1,178 people hospitalized statewide so far in the last digits provided by the Oregon Health Authority. The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 is now more than double the previous peak of cases last winter, before vaccines became widely available.
On Tuesday, Graven’s model shows the number of hospitalizations starting to decline as the highly contagious delta variant finds fewer Oregonians who have not been vaccinated or already infected.
“It’s getting harder and harder for the virus to find susceptible people right now, but unfortunately that’s because it has already infected so many,” Graven said.
For those who were naturally infected and survived, laboratory research published by scientists and doctors at OHSU shows that previously infected people will benefit from much more protection if they are vaccinated. Vaccination remains the surest way to end the pandemic.
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