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Our next rainmaker is in Minnesota on Monday.
A low near the Canadian border drives a cold front through Minnesota. Scattered rains and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal area as it moves east through Minnesota.
NOAA’s 3 km NAM resolution model shows the area of rain slowly moving east. Noon and afternoon hours are most favored for the stronger cells around the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota.
NOAA NAM 3 km model from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Monday.
NOAA via tropical treats
Here is another radar sync estimate from the Twin Cities NWS office.
Here is the view of northern Minnesota from Duluth NWS office.
Precipitation and extreme weather forecasts for northern Minnesota.
Duluth National Weather Service
Heavy rains locally
Many areas could receive 1 to 2 inches of rain on Monday. Several forecast models generate pockets of precipitation totals 2-3 inches below the heaviest cells. Here is the output of the precipitation of the European model.
European Model Precipitation Forecast (ECMWF) Monday.
ECMWF via pivot weather
Marginal severe risk
NOAA Storm Forecasting Center describes a marginal (low) severe risk for eastern Minnesota which includes much of the Twin Cities.
Areas at risk of severe weather Monday.
NOAA via Iowa Emergency Management
So grab the umbrella on Monday and keep an eye out for possible severe weather warnings. Receive up-to-the-minute information on severe weather at MPR Severe Weather Live Blog, and @MPRWeather on Twitter.
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