Renowned epidemiologist says world “is closer to the start than the end” of the pandemic

A renowned epidemiologist says the coronavirus pandemic is far from over due to the lack of vaccines available for each country.

Dr Larry Brilliant, who was a doctor in the World Health Organization (WHO) smallpox eradication program, says few people around the world have been vaccinated against COVID-19.

He told CNBC Street Signs that only 15% of people around the world have been immunized, with some countries not having even vaccinated 5% of residents.

Brilliant also addressed the spread of the Indian ‘Delta’ variant and sad that it is the most contagious he has ever seen in his career.

‘I think we’re closer to the start than the end [of the pandemic], and it is not because the [Delta] variant that we’re looking at right now is going to last that long, ”Brilliant told CNBC.

“Unless we vaccinate everyone in over 200 countries, there will always be new variants.”

Dr Larry Brilliant, member of the WHO team to eradicate smallpox, told CNBC (pictured) the pandemic is not about to end as only 15% of people globally have been vaccinated

Brilliant said the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) is the most contagious virus he’s ever seen because it has a short incubation period and one person transmits it to eight others. It currently accounts for 90% of cases in the United States (above)

The world has struggled to contain the Delta variant since its discovery in September 2020 in the state of Maharashtra, which is the second most populous state in India and where Mumbai is located.

Indian health authorities have called the variant a “double mutant” because it carries two mutations: L452R and E484Q.

Both mutations occur on key parts of the virus that allow it to enter and infect human cells.

In the United States, the Delta variant – including its subtypes – currently accounts for over 90 percent of all topical cases.

“This new variant, the Delta variant, is different,” Brilliant told CNBC.

“When you and I spoke before, we didn’t deal with a virus that had a three-and-a-half-day incubation period and each case resulted in eight more with exponential growth.

“It is perhaps the most contagious virus that we have ever seen in living memory.”

However, Brilliant said the three vaccines approved in the United States – Pfizer-BIoNTech, Modern and Johnson & Johnson – help prevent cases of serious illness and death in people infected with Delta.

The doctor also explained how the outbreaks in the UK and India, fueled by the Delta variant, have each diminished.

In the UK, the seven-day moving average of new cases per day fell from 47,000 on July 21 to 27,200 on Sunday, according to Our World in Data.

Meanwhile, in India, the daily average peaked at around 40,000 cases per day after peaking at 391,000 on May 9.

Some have predicted that the United States, which averages 100,000 new cases a day, will follow the same path and are only three to four weeks behind the United Kingdom.

Brilliant said the Delta variant likely infects people so quickly that it runs out of people to spread after a few weeks.

“Our models… also predict an inverted V-shaped epidemic curve, rising very rapidly and falling very rapidly,” he told CNBC.

“This disease is so infectious and is so quick to infect everyone that, even including the fact that some vaccinated people are also infected, it essentially lacks candidates. [to infect] very quickly.

“It may mean that this is a six-month phenomenon in a country, rather than a two-year phenomenon. But I am warning people that this is the Delta variant and we are not short of Greek letters, so there could be more to come.