Researchers say Hennepin County is among the most exposed

Hennepin County is one of 25 counties in the United States that are at greatest risk for new measles outbreaks by 2019, according to a risk analysis published in Lancet Infectious Diseases.

The analysis is based not only on county population and size, but also on two other key factors: the presence of an international airport, which increases the likelihood that infected travelers from countries with measles will cross the region , and a low exchange rate. vaccination rate of young people due to the high number of non-medical exemptions.

Unlike most other counties identified in the analysis, Hennepin County – actually all of Minnesota – has no measles cases this year. However, the risk of outbreak remains high and "should be the focus of increased surveillance and intensification of vaccination efforts," according to the authors of the analysis.

"There has been a resurgence of measles cases, among other vaccine – preventable diseases, in the United States and in other countries in recent years," Lauren Gardner said. one of the authors of the analysis and associate professor of civil engineering at Johns Hopkins University, in a statement published. "Measles, in particular, poses a serious threat to public health because of the highly contagious nature of the disease. It is therefore essential to proactively identify the areas most likely to be affected by epidemics to be strategically targeted for surveillance and control. "

The number of measles cases reported in the United States this year is around 800 – the highest number since 1994 and since measles was declared eliminated in the country in 2000, according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Individual cases have been reported in 23 states and epidemics (three or more cases) are currently in progress in six states (California, Georgia, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey and New York).

The majority of infected Americans have not been vaccinated against the disease.

Most likely sources

Health officials estimate that the risk of measles will likely increase this summer with the increase in international travel, thus offering more opportunities for the disease to enter the United States. the first two months of 2019. These cases included at least 13 deaths.

But according to Gardner and colleagues' analysis, the countries with the highest risk of measles for the United States are (in order of risk) China, Mexico, Japan, Ukraine, the Philippines and Thailand. Only one of these countries (Ukraine) is European.

It is also important to note that tourists and business travelers traveling between these countries and the United States – not immigrants – are the source of the risk described in the new analysis.

"We should consider measures to improve public health in these countries – for example, foundations engaged in improving global health could allocate funds for immunization efforts in these countries," Gardner said. colleagues.

Where the risk is greatest

Here are the 25 counties that, according to the researchers, present the highest risk of measles outbreaks in 2019. Thirty of the 45 counties reporting measles cases this year are on this list or are adjacent to it. one of the counties of the list.

1. Cook, Illinois
2. Los Angeles
3. Miami-Dade, Florida
4. Queens, New York
5. King, Washington
6. Maricopa, Arizona
7. Broward, Florida
8. Clark, Nevada
9. Harris, Texas
10. Honolulu
11. Wayne, Michigan
12. Tarrant, Texas
13. Multnomah, Oregon
14. Orange, Florida
15. Essex, New Jersey
16. Denver, Colorado
17. Hillsborough, Florida
18. San Mateo, California
19. Salt lake, Utah
20. Suffolk, Massachusetts
21. Clayton, Georgia
22. Travis, Texas
23. Hennepin, Minnesota
24. Loudoun, Virginia
25. San Diego

IMF: You will find the analysis on the Lancet Infectious Diseases website.