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FiveThirtyEight.com, which used the Elo model, a system that is too complex to summarize (you'll find out more here), has projected the Steelers to win 9.5 games, the Ravens (8.4) and the Browns (8). , 4) being virtually equal for the second. The Ravens had a 41% chance to play in the playoffs, 26% to win the division and 3% to win the Super Bowl.
"The rumors about the Steelers' deaths seem to have been greatly exaggerated," wrote Neil Payne of FiveThirtyEight. "Despite a tumultuous off-season officially implying the loss [Le’Veon] Bell and receiver Antonio Brown at the Raiders, Pittsburgh remains the highest ranked team in the North. This is partly thanks to Ben Roethlisberger, who ranks first overall in Elo, and partly because the Steelers have one of the easiest programs in the league.
"Crows and browns are neck and neck behind them; Elo is skeptical about Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson, after posting not-so-good rookie statistics, but thinks he's outnumbered Baker Mayfield in Cleveland – despite the big Browns off-season ( hello, Odell) and its general level in 2019. "
Dan Cancian of Newsweek predicted that the Browns would win Division 11 to 5 and win the division. However, he left room for maneuver, writing that the Ravens who repeat as division champions are "far from being an impossible task since the AFC North seems wide open this season".
Athletic's Sheil Kapadia liked the Steelers (11-5) to win not only the division, but also the Super Bowl, the Browns (10-6) and the Ravens (9-7) also making the playoffs. The Ravens lost in the first round against the Kansas City Chiefs.
"The Lamar Jackson experience has had its ups and downs, but the Ravens are producing the most diverse attack in the league with new coordinator Greg Roman," wrote Kapadia. "That, combined with the best side team and an elite special team unit, positions the Ravens as one of three teams in the division to playoff. Baltimore is the second wild card. "
Athletic also interviewed 44 local and national writers for various predictions. The Steelers, with 30 votes, were the overwhelming favorites to win the AFC North, followed by the Browns (nine) and Ravens (five). The Ravens received the second highest number of votes (16) for wild card teams, ahead of the Los Angeles Chargers (23).
There was almost no love for the Ravens of MMQB staff from Sports Illustrated from 13 contributors. Nine of them chose the Steelers to win the AFC North, three with the Browns and the Ravens received only one vote.
Andrew Brandt, the only opponent, led the Ravens to the CAF championship match against the Chiefs after defeating the Browns and New England Patriots in the playoffs. No other MMQB staff member believed that the Ravens would play in the playoffs.
"I am also very proud of the Ravens, who are going to show us" the next "in offensive football with Lamar Jackson playing a quarter / half in the running," said Brandt. "As many say," you can not play like that! "I say that they are going to be very successful."
Predicting the ceiling, Lamar Jackson's floor
In keeping with the prognostic theme, let's look at what two local media have written about what to expect from Jackson this season.
Ebony Bird's Richard Bradshaw has set a ceiling / floor forecast for the second-year Ravens' quarterback in four categories:
Courtyard (ceiling: 3,600, floor: 2,200): "If all happened, we could witness a solid passing assault for Baltimore in 2019. The only thing that stands in the way of Lamar Jackson, who passes the next step as a smuggler, is himself. He will have to radically improve his general mechanics if he wants to improve his touch and precision. If he can not, the Ravens could have the worst passing attack of any league. "
Passage of the touchdowns (25; 15): "The majority of this receiver core is made up of big guys who could be machines in the red zone. Hayden Hurst could lead the team by receiving touchdowns and I would not be shocked. Even after Hurst, there are talented guys from the red zone like Miles Boykin. There is also no reason to believe that Mark Andrews could not benefit in this role either. "
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