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Scientists studying the effects of the new variant of Covid-19 spreading in the UK have warned that their research shows it to be both deadlier and more transmissible.
In a briefing with reporters on Monday, Professor John Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the study’s results were “statistically significant” and stressed the need to take the virus seriously.
Boris Johnson announced in Downing Street on Friday the preliminary results of several studies which appeared to show the new variant, which emerged in south-eastern England late last year, could be 30% deadlier than the previous form.
But over the weekend, Public Health England medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle said it was still not “absolutely clear” that the new variant was deadlier.
After the Downing Street press conference, a report by the Government’s Advisory Group on New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats (Nervtag), warned that there was a “realistic possibility” that the variant was associated with increased risk of deceased.
The increase in the relative risk of death remains low overall for most people infected with Covid.
That would mean that for every 1,000 people infected, 10 of whom may have died previously, the new variant could kill three or four more people.
Explaining the science behind the research, Prof Edmunds said: “It’s statistically significant. It’s a very large dataset, it’s about 850,000 cases that are included. And in terms of deaths, it’s between 1,400 and 1,900 deaths, so that’s a pretty large sample.
“Whichever way we do it … pretty much every time we get an estimate, which is very similar to a risk ratio of about 1.3, so a 30% increase.” The other groups used slightly different methods effectively using the same data and came up with similar results. ”
Peter Horby, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the University of Oxford and chair of NERVTAG, said changes to the new variant could explain how it was able to spread more easily between people and why it can lead to more severe disease in some patients.
He said: “What we believe both structurally and from the lab data is that this change means the virus can bind much more strongly to human cells, which means it can be easier to get infected with the virus.
“This is the most plausible biological explanation for the observed increase in transmissibility and possibly the increase in severity that we can see.”
Professor Edmunds added that the increase in transmissibility and the risk of death was “a serious turn for the worse”.
He said full research on the new variant will be sent to a scientific journal for publication in a few days.
Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modeling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said despite the uncertainty in the data, it’s clear the new strain is not more benign.
He explained: “One of the possibilities was that this new variant would lead to less mortality, it would be less virulent.
“And I think we can be absolutely sure that’s not the case.
“If there is a significant increase in mortality – the evidence we have is very strong, but it could still be wrong with different data or change with different sets of data, but that is certainly not the case when ‘this is a milder virus. ”
Despite the heightened threat from the new variant, researchers said existing lockdown measures will remain essential to reducing infections and deaths and they said there was no evidence that existing vaccines and medical treatments such that dexamethasone were not effective against it.
Peter Horby added: “The basic principles of control remain exactly the same for this virus as the old variants.
“There is no evidence that this new virus escapes any of the treatments that have been shown to work or any of the vaccines.
“It just highlights the importance of continuing to reduce the number of infections.”
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