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The annual inflation rate was 5.4% in June, slightly below the expectations of banking economists. Analysts believe that this is the highest point of the year, and that the annual rate will fall by the end of 2018, but will remain above the BNR target and forecasts that will make a new decision monetary policy in August.
a base point from May, while analysts Reuters and Bloomberg were expecting an increase of 5.5%. Food prices fell in the first month of summer, while fuel prices rose and the price of services rose 0.2% from May due to a slight depreciation of leu
Economists of BCR and ING The Bank estimates that annual inflation peaked in June and that its rate will drop due to the base effect
"L & rsquo; Inflation peaked at 5.4% in June and the 0.3% rise month over month last July should lead to a lower annual rate in July 2018, "writes Ciprian Dascălu and Valentin Tătaru. ING
Annual inflation rate, which excludes the evolution of volatile and administered prices of the economy as well as the carb urants, on the car the central bank is less influential on them, it fell to 2.9% from 2.95% in May. The governor of the BNR, Mugur Isarescu, noted at a press conference after the monetary policy session earlier this month that a drop in core inflation (from 3.1 % in April) indicates that the interest rate of the central bank is increasing
"Underlying inflation 2, followed closely by the BNR in making monetary policy decisions, has fallen for the second month to 2.9% in June, sign that underlying inflationary pressures are not very strong in economics, "writes Eugen Sinca, analyst at BCR
BCR estimates that annual inflation will gradually decline at 3.7% at the end of 2018, but on the NBR range of 1.5-3.5% and above the current central bank forecast of 3.5%
"L & # 39; Inflation will remain higher than the BNR's target over the coming quarters and we will see the next August monetary policy session a good opportunity. For an increase in the interest rate director, Sinca writes:
ING is relying on maintaining a 2.5% interest rate, provided that the voltages do not lead to depreciating pressures on the exchange rate. Dutch bank economists expect the annual inflation rate to be lower in the coming months, around 5% or below this level, in October, when the rate could fall 0.8 point due to base effects after 1965, UniCredit Bank wrote in a recent report that it was expecting two new interest rate increases this year, especially due to soaring fuel prices, starting from the August meeting
The BNR has increased the interest rate director in three stages of 0.25pp this year, by 1.75%
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