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San Diego County has no chance of breaking out of the red level this week, even as the state relaxes the limits on the next least restrictive orange level.
A technicality in the state’s plan to reopen, the California Department of Public Health confirmed in an email on Tuesday, means that as soon as possible the region could turn orange is Wednesday, April 7.
Meanwhile, the number of vaccine doses expected in the region continues to improve.
This week, the county expects to receive nearly 133,000 doses of the vaccine, according to Nick Macchione, director of the Regional Health and Human Services Agency. This number is likely underestimated because it does not include doses sent directly to pharmacies, the San Diego Veterans Administration, the military, and Native American tribes, among other groups.
The region’s ability to administer fire easily exceeds its supply. Sites run by the county, health systems and other vaccine providers can immunize 35,000 people a day, according to Macchione. This means the region would need 245,000 doses per week to reach its maximum daily immunization capacity – nearly double the expected shipment this week.
Demand for vaccines has exceeded supply since the start of deployment in the region. Thursday will be no exception. This is when all San Diegans between the ages of 50 and 64 become eligible, and anyone 16 and over will become eligible on April 15.
The state reopening plan, first put in place in August 2020, now takes vaccination into account in its calculations of the volume of activity that should be allowed in businesses and other places where people congregate in outside their home.
Because generally better-off areas have tended to have better access to early vaccine supplies – in part because well-paid health workers were the first to receive doses – the state has tied the pace of the reopening. the amount of vaccine sent to areas deemed to have the worst access to quality health care and other environmental factors that contribute to healthy living.
Once at least 4 million doses of the vaccine are sent to the most disadvantaged areas of California, the state will reduce the lower threshold of the orange level from 3.9 to 5.9 cases per 100,000 population. As of Tuesday, these areas had received more than 3.4 million does, which suggests that reaching the 4 million mark could occur over the weekend.
As it did when the region hit the 2 million mark, the California Department of Public Health will retroactively promote all counties to the amber level that have previous weekly case rates that fall below the new limit. San Diego posted a score of 4.9 this week and 5.5 last week. Although neither of the two scores is low enough to meet the current orange level cutoff of 3.9 cases per 100,000, both scores will be orange once the cutoff drops to 5.9.
Given that a county must have at least two consecutive scores in the orange zone before switching from red, and the fact that the state has said it will look back and retroactively grant orange status to those whose two scores previous ones hit the 5.9 mark, San Diego should be among those going orange if the threshold drops this week, right?
False.
The state’s reopening plan requires counties to stay at their current levels for at least three weeks before moving to a less restrictive level. San Diego has only been in the red tier for two weeks – since March 17.
In an email, the California Department of Public Health confirmed that San Diego “would need both two consecutive weeks of better metrics and a total of three weeks in a level and therefore” wouldn’t budge. away ”if any adjustments were made later this week.
However, a third qualifying score next week would bring the orange level up the next day, April 7.
None of these level adjustments affect what should happen on Thursday. This is when outdoor entertainment venues and amusement parks will be able to resume limited activities and all adults 50 and older will qualify to make immunization appointments.
Switching to orange, however, would result in an immediate increase in the extent to which various types of activities are permitted.
Restaurants could increase from 25% to 50% of their indoor capacity, gyms and fitness centers could use 25% of their indoor spaces – more than double the current 10% – bars could open in outdoors, live outdoor events could move from 20 percent to 33 percent seating and amusement park occupancy could drop from 15 percent to 25 percent indoor occupancy and outside.
Vaccination is key to avoiding falling down the statewide reopening ladder, and it’s clear San Diego is making significant strides in that regard.
Although around 591,000 residents between the ages of 50 and 64 technically qualify to be vaccinated as of Thursday, a very significant segment of this age group already has one vaccine or another in their veins.
About 94,000 people in San Diego County have already been vaccinated because they fell within existing immunization levels such as first responders, healthcare workers, food and agriculture workers, and teachers. Another 106,000 have received a dose of vaccine but still need a second vaccine to maximize immunity to the coronavirus.
That leaves 391,000 San Diegans aged 50 to 64 who have not been vaccinated, many of whom will start looking for dates on Thursday. They will join a large number of already eligible people who need a second dose or are still looking for the first. And while state officials predict that California’s vaccine supply will increase to 3 million doses per week by the end of April, it will likely take weeks to meet the current overwhelming demand.
San Diego has so far remained outside the national trend of increasing coronavirus infections. Tuesday’s daily follow-up report included 227 new positive tests, slightly less than Monday’s 290 and a far cry from the winter months when 1,000 cases per day often seemed low. Local hospitalizations continued on a beneficial trajectory, dropping to 181 with COVID in local hospital beds on Monday.
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