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ALBANY – Sunday should have been Day 10 for Albany County.
School districts in the capital region were preparing to test 20% of their students and on-site employees for the coronavirus under the state’s “yellow zone” rules, which are triggered after 10 days of high positivity rates – in the case of the county more than 3 per cent.
A change in how the state determines microcluster designations has temporarily prevented parts of the county from facing new restrictions even as the number of COVID-19 continues to skyrocket.
Governor Andrew M. Cuomo on Monday announced that he would add hospitalization and death rates, available hospital and intensive care beds, and available healthcare personnel to the parameters the state uses to designate areas. The levels that trigger the zones have yet to be established, but will be announced later this week, he said.
“Our positivity rates are going to be exceeded in a while. They were all best case scenarios and kept artificially low… there is no state in the country that is below 3 percent,” Cuomo said. “Hospitaller capacity has always been my nightmare.”
Based on previous parameters, Albany County was one day away from reaching the yellow zone threshold that would impose new restrictions on places of worship, bars, restaurants, schools and gatherings. The metric that was closely watched – and will always be part of the state’s formula, Cuomo said Monday – was the percentage of residents who tested positive for the virus over a seven-day average.
Until the levels of the new parameters are established, it is still unclear how soon some parts of the county may face further restrictions.
Just before Cuomo’s announcement on Monday, Albany County Executive Dan McCoy said he suspected parts of the county would exceed the trigger of a yellow designation and switch to orange based on the trend of numbers. In an amber zone, capacity restrictions are tightening and high-risk businesses such as salons and gyms must close.
“I have to be honest with you,” McCoy said. “We’re probably going to go yellow, folks, and go straight to orange at the rate we’re heading.”
McCoy said the state did not notify the county in advance of a microcluster designation. He said the notice usually comes right before the press briefing at which the governor plans to announce it. Cuomo did not make such an announcement on Monday.
Before making a designation, state health officials contact the local health department to determine the areas causing the increases so they know how to draw the area.
“I think … we are looking at some restrictions imminently,” County Health Commissioner Elizabeth Whalen told reporters. “It remains to be seen whether they’re yellow or orange. But the trends we’ve seen over the past few weeks really point us in that direction. So it’s a question of when.”
The state’s complex micro-cluster formula – which can apply to a county, zip code, neighborhood or geographic region – has made it difficult for counties and communities with escalating cases of COVID. 19 to anticipate restrictions.
Micro-cluster designations appear to lag behind positivity rates in other upstate counties, such as Putnam, which has a seven-day positivity average of over 6% and appears to have had to respond. to the “yellow zone” criteria weeks ago.
Putnam County officials last week urged the state to share COVID-19 hyperlocal data to help inform their public health decisions.
“The majority of our residents continue to make responsible choices that keep their community safe. However, we rely on state data to keep people informed – which is why we continue to push for the state to provide us with a city or zip code breakdown of their metrics, ”MaryEllen said. Odell, director of Putnam County.
Lack of public data at the zip code level has also made it difficult to assess the risk of a micro-cluster in the city of Albany, where most of the county’s cases are concentrated, according to a health department data card. County. Due to its population, the city’s threshold for triggering a yellow zone designation was even lower than that of the county, at 2.5%.
While there is no publicly available COVID-19 data for the city, the county’s threshold has been above 2.5% for almost two weeks. Schenectady and Saratoga counties are also advancing towards the 3% line.
Meanwhile, the statewide positivity rate has also consistently exceeded 3%, even excluding micro-cluster areas, according to the state’s COVID-19 dashboard.
It is not clear to what extent positivity rates will factor into microcluster designations or school testing requirements.
The governor has softened school closures in recent days, making it easier for districts to keep buildings open in a yellow zone. Districts in an orange or red zone can reopen after as little as five days if they test all students and staff on site. Cuomo cites state data showing infection rates are relatively low in schools.
“It’s amazing how low the infection rates are in schools, especially K-8,” Cuomo said.
The Albany City School District had already trained its nurses and ordered hundreds of rapid tests to screen its population on the spot in anticipation of the new guidelines.
The districts of Saratoga Springs, Bethlehem, Rotterdam-Mohonasen and Green Island are also preparing to conduct large-scale testing in schools. Many districts have already sent consent forms to allow students to be tested at school and are working through other logistics.
School leaders say they have sought clarification from the state on the new microcluster standard and say they continue to prepare for school tests just in case.
“I listened to the governor’s speech today and had a county-wide meeting with the Schenectady (Department of Health) and public and private schools in Schenectady County and we left with more questions There are only answers to some of these changes, ”Rotterdam-Mohonasen Superintendent Shannon Shine said.
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