Scientists explain how climate change has made Hurricane Maria so devastating – ThinkProgress

A new study reveals that man-made climate change has been the driving force behind the devastating and deadly rains of Hurricane Maria.

Maria hit Puerto Rico on September 20, 2017 as a super hurricane with winds of 155 km / h. The record storm caused more than $ 90 billion worth of damage, with independent estimates of casualties ranging from 2,975 to over 5,000.

The authors of the new Geophysical Research Letters study concluded that a Maria-level hurricane "is almost five times more likely to form now than in the 1950s, an increase largely due to the effects of global warming caused by climate change. # 39; man. "

How does global warming cause extreme deluges? As the lead author David Keellings has explained, this is a combination of long-term climate change, "such as warming of the atmosphere, sea surface temperatures, and increasing sea level." humidity in the atmosphere ".

These findings, along with similar studies of how climate change has compounded Hurricane Harvey, highlight the warning issued by many scientists regarding the impact of Maria and other super hurricanes: Global warming is fueling these increasingly intense and destructive storms.

"This study reaffirms what many of us have already concluded, namely that climate change has exacerbated the impact of recent devastating hurricanes such as Maria," said climatologist Michael Mann at Think Progress in a report. email. "As this study shows, ocean warming has been the source of extreme rainfall and floods that Puerto Rico has experienced. I would add that almost record high ocean temperatures have also played a role in rapidly intensifying the storm into a category five monster. "

For this latest study, researchers examined precipitation data from 35 historical weather stations for the 129 hurricanes that have hit the island since 1956, the oldest year with reliable data.

They concluded that Maria had generated the greatest amount of maximum daily rain for the island among these 129 storms – an impressive height of 1,029 millimeters (41 inches). The next closest hurricane recorded in the historical archive was 774.9 mm (30.5 inches), 10 inches less.

The authors then used a statistical analysis "taking into account natural climate variability and long-term climate change influences on extreme precipitation" to determine the influence of anthropogenic climate change on rainfall. .

They found that the chances of such an extreme deluge were almost five times higher in 2017 than in 1956, mainly because of climate change.

It is clear that the United States must prepare to receive more Harveys and Marias because of the warming that has already occurred. But these super-storms and their floods will only intensify in the decades to come, until we reduce emissions sufficiently deep to slow down and then stop global warming caused by man.