Scientists find ‘holy grail’ of volcanic research after finding way to predict eruptions

STANFORD, Calif .– Volcanoes have long been a great source of mystique for scientists. In particular, figuring out how to spot an impending eruption earlier to avoid deadly consequences, such as the New Zealand eruption in 2019, is a top priority. Now, volcanologists say they have discovered the “holy grail” of volcanic research after finding a way to predict eruptions by examining decades-old lava crystals.

A new study on dried lava reveals that crystal formations can inform scientists of magma flows underground and give clues as to when they might blow the next blow. The astonishing discovery of Kilauea Iki, a pit crater next to the main caldera of the summit of Kilauea volcano in Hawaii, came after examining deposits of olivine, a green mineral originating from beneath the earth’s surface, during eruptions.

Although they remained from a Kilauea Iki eruption as early as 1959, analysis of the millimeter-sized crystals revealed that they were oriented in a strange, but surprisingly consistent pattern. Crystals form when magma, called lava once it hits the surface, comes in contact with cool air, causing it to solidify quickly and trap the crystals as they were at the time of the eruption. .

Scientists at Stanford University in California realized that the patterns in the crystals were created by a wave in the magma below the surface moving in two directions at once. They say one flow was moving directly above the other, rather than pouring through the hollow column at the center of the volcano, known as the conduit, in a constant flow.

Simulations of the Kilauea volcano helped scientists understand eruptions

With this new knowledge and computer simulations, the team now believes they can predict future eruptions based on flow patterns and even uncover information about past volcanic activity.

“I always suspected that these crystals were much more interesting and important than what we attribute to them,” said Jenny Suckale, assistant professor of geophysics at the School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences at Stanford, in an academic statement. “We can actually infer quantitative attributes of the pre-eruption flow from this crystalline data and learn more about the processes that led to the eruption without breaking through the volcano. It is for me the holy grail in volcanology.

For scientists, studying the active volcano of Kilauea poses a daunting challenge due to its unpredictable eruptions. Residents on the southeast side of the Big Island of Hawaii face great risk from periodic bursts of lava flow from the volcano. The study could lead to great progress in ensuring the safety of these residents in the future.

“It’s the result of detective work of appreciating the detail as the most important piece of evidence. This data is important for advancing our future research on these dangers, because if I can measure the wave, I can constrain the flow of magma – and these crystals allow me to reach that wave, ”says Suckale. “No one knows when the next episode is going to start or how bad it is going to be – and it all depends on the details of the dynamics of the conduit.”

The results were published in the journal Scientific advances.

SWNS author William Janes contributed to this report.