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(Newser)
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Predicting earthquakes is almost impossible, but a new study is hailed as an important first step. Delivery: Large earthquakes are preceded by smaller ones, reports the Los Angeles Times. Researchers have used a new technique developed to detect "micro-tremors" that are undetectable, some of which have a magnitude of less than 2. What to look for National Geographic On the basis of this technique, researchers have identified a clear pattern: between 2007 and 2018, 72% of the magnitude 4 earthquakes in southern Southern California were preceded by smaller earthquakes. "This is really a first step and a big step forward in improving our understanding of seismic processes," says Wendy Bohon, P.Geo., Of the incorporated seismology research institutes, who was not involved in the study. .
Researchers insist on this "first step" part, that we are far from being able to make reliable predictions from existing data. But research suggests that statistical forecasts are a future possibility – for example, if computers detect micro-tremors close to a fault. "It sounds a bit like the history of weather forecasts, where it took hundreds of years of steady progress to get where we are today," says Daniel Trugman of the Los National Laboratory. Alamos in a press release. He is co-author of the new study of Geophysical Research Letters. The study notes that most small earthquakes dissipate without anything happening, but that it could help scientists better understand when these small earthquakes become a source of concern. (Read more about earthquake stories.)
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