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Scientists predict that the number of people with a poorly understood type of Lyme disease could reach nearly 2 million in 2020.
The most common vector-borne disease in the United States, Lyme disease is a disease caused by Borrelia burgdorferi bacterium, which is spread by infected ticks. Fever, headache, chills, fatigue, joint and muscle pain, and swollen lymph nodes strike the sick. In many cases, patients experience rash due to erythema migrans that can reach 12 inches around the area of the tick bite. It is thought that about 329,000 cases occur each year, although the actual number of infections is higher.
In most cases, doctors prescribe antibiotics and the symptoms disappear. However, for others, the symptoms may persist in what is called post-treatment Lyme disease or post-treatment Lyme disease syndrome. The disease is characterized by cognitive dysfunction, incapacitating fatigue and chronic pain, according to the authors of the research published in the journal BMC Public Health.
The disease is poorly understood: there is no established diagnosis and treatment is controversial, the authors wrote. The cause is unknown – some people think the virus could disrupt the immune system – and recovery can take several months. Earlier estimates suggest that treatments fail in 10 to 20 percent of cases, which could cost the US economy up to $ 1 billion a year.
"Although antibiotic therapy treats most patients with LD, a significant proportion of patients continue to suffer from persistent symptoms that can interfere with a normal life," the team wrote.
It may therefore be difficult to find accurate data on the prevalence of PTLD and a diagnosis may involve eliminating other health problems.
For their study, scientists used multiple data pools to create a model to estimate the number of PTLD cases that occurred between 2016 and 2020. These data included data collected by the State Center for Disease Control and Prevention. States, as well as previous estimates of Lyme disease rates; Survival rate; and examples of failed treatments.
According to a cautious estimate made by the researchers, 69,011 cases of PTLD would have been recorded in 2016, then increase to 81,509 in 2020. In another model, the researchers took into account the rising cases from the 1980s associated with unsuccessful treatment in 20% of cases. This would give a forecast of 1,523,869 cases in 2016 and 1,944,189 forecasts for 2020.
The authors acknowledged that it remains to be determined what is the most accurate estimate.
"Nevertheless, our results suggest that there are a large number of patients living with chronic LD-related disease," they wrote. Further research is now needed to create tests to accurately diagnose and treat the disease, raise public awareness and reach a definitive number of people affected.
While ticks carrying the bacteria at the origin of Lyme disease can strike at any time of the year, the hottest months of April and September are the riskiest ones. The CDC recommends avoiding grassy, brushed or wooded areas where ticks can hide and treat clothing with 0.5% permethrin-based products and EPA-approved insect repellents before getting in. return to areas where insects might live.
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