Scientists warn they have no precise way of predicting when supervolcanic explosions could occur

Volcanologists can predict when volcanoes will erupt if they have full details of its eruptions.

But for potentially apocalyptic supervolcanoes, like the one bubbling beneath Yellowstone National Park, that’s nearly impossible, given the diversity of their known eruptions, according to a new study.

Researchers at Cardiff University noted that there is no ‘one size fits all’ model that can help scientists understand how supervolcanoes eruptions occur, making it difficult to understand when they might occur at the time. to come up.

Researchers examined geochemical and petrological evidence for 13 supereruptions that have occurred over the past 2 million years, including the most recent, the Taupō volcano in New Zealand, which occurred over 24 years ago. 000 years old.

There was no “one and only one mode” that showed how each of the 13 played out, with some starting gradually over a period of weeks to months, while others exploding suddenly and violently.

The researchers also found that the eruptions last for varying periods of time, some as short as a period of days or weeks, while others last for decades.

For example, researchers found that the youngest Toba tuff, which erupted 74,000 years ago, erupted almost immediately.

Conversely, the Eruanui eruption, which occurred more than 25,000 years ago, began slowly before experiencing a collapse of the Caldera and then progressing over a period of several months.

Yellowstone Caldera and Long Valley Caldera are two of the most important supervolcanoes, having last erupted 600,000 and 760,000 years ago, respectively.

A previous study found that Yellowstone erupts on average once every 1.5 million years, indicating that it could be another 900,000 years before an eruption occurs.

The Yellowstone supervolcano has erupted at least 10 times in the past 16 million years, LiveScience reported.

A 2017 study suggested that the Yellowstone supervolcano may erupt faster than experts previously thought, although it is likely a smaller eruption.

When supervolcanoes explode, there are devastating after-effects, with falling ash covering the ground and clouds of ash reaching hundreds of feet thick.

The explosion also leaves a massive hole in the Earth, known as the Caldera, due to the removal of magma.

“Supereruptions can literally start with a bang and the chamber roof collapsing or start gradually, with hesitation before escalating into catastrophic activity,” said study co-author Dr George Cooper of the Cardiff University School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, in a statement.

“Overall, the rash can be rapid, uninterrupted events over a few days or an episodic sequence extended over decades.

“The uncertainty associated with these events therefore makes it very difficult to determine when and how these volcanoes could potentially erupt in the future.”

A supervolcano is defined as a volcano that has had an explosion of at least 8 on the Volcanic Explosive Index, with an erupting volume of tephra of more than 1,000 cubic kilometers, as measured by the US Geological Survey .

Supervolcanoes eruptions are considered “extremely rare”, occurring once every 100,000 years.

The researchers said they would try to use more sophisticated software, including machine learning algorithms, to help interpret signals from stored magma and its movement in the hours and days leading up to the eruption.

They also added that there needs to be more education on how often supervolcanoes erupt.

“Yellowstone is an example where misinformation has led the public to believe that a catastrophic eruption may be imminent, when in reality it is extremely unlikely,” continued Dr Cooper.

“Therefore, we need to improve our understanding and communication about the difference between normal non-eruptive disorders and indicators that a rash may be about to occur.”

The study was published Tuesday in the scientific journal Nature Reviews Earth and Environment.