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"I can not vote for those who mistreated me. I can not vote for Zanu-PF. So who is left? Chamisa. " On the eve of the general election held in Zimbabwe on Monday, deposed President Robert Mugabe offered himself a taste of revenge.
Sitting in a large leather chair, a cushion with tiger stripes patterned behind his back, in the shadow of a pagoda in the vast garden of his residence in the capital Harare, he faces the international press he invited, satisfied with the presence of this attentive audience. The message is clear. The "old lion" (94 years) has, implicitly, to give his voting instructions: the leader of the opposition, Nelson Chamisa. Everything rather than the party that rejected him, that Emerson Mnangagwa, his former right-hand man became president at the end of the coup, led with the support of the army, who overthrew in November. 19659003] "Patronage"
"It was a coup", says Robert Mugabe. Elegant in a charcoal gray suit, red tie and matching pocket, sunglasses on the nose, the former head of state speaks for over two hours, without notes, and poses, ironically, in defense of democracy. His voice is low, his words set, sometimes punctuated with a touch of humor, sometimes a vitriolic attack.
The man who answers the journalists' questions does not have much in common with the a confused old man who mixed the pages written for him with a letter of resignation which had been imposed upon him. The former despotic independence hero, who ruled Zimbabwe with an iron fist for over thirty years, is trying to regain his dignity. And to bring down those who made it fall.
What influence does it still enjoy? Could he be the kingmaker of this election? Opinions differ. "Robert Mugabe wove a well-oiled patronage network, recalls Pedzisai Ruhanya, Zimbabwean analyst and close to the opposition. It should not be forgotten that in the provinces historically faithful to Zanu-PF, Mugabe still enjoys sympathy with traditional leaders. The crowd took to the streets in Harare to celebrate its fall but the capital is acquired by the opposition. In the villages, there were no celebrations. "
Some activists and officials of the ruling party Zanu-PF did not digest the stab in the back the one they had supported for three decades. Others also feel that a faction of the party has imposed its methods and decisions on them. In March, a new political formation, the National Patriotic Front, was created by supporters of the former autocrat. And the majority of G40 members – those in Zanu-PF who supported the First Lady, Grace Mugabe, accused of manipulating her husband to seize power – are still in Zimbabwe. These dissidents did not make their voices heard for fear of reprisals. It is impossible to estimate their real number, let alone to know what percentage of them would be ready to swing on the side of the opposition, by rage or spite.
"The defeated faction tried to instil a false narrative of instability, estimates Derek Matyszak, an analyst for the Institute of Security Studies in South Africa. This party [le Front patriotique national, ndlr] vaguely associated with Mugabe will not reap more than 1 or 2% of the vote. Most G40 alumni are probably even more inclined to ostensibly show support for Emmerson Mnangagwa. They will want to be on the side of the one who wins to continue to enjoy the privileges offered by the party. "
Elbow-to-elbow
During his campaign, the young opposition candidate advocated the unit and kept from attacking Robert Mugabe directly. "We welcome all the votes. We want a new beginning, " said Nelson Chamisa, 40, who had, ten years ago, the skull fractured by supporters of Zanu-PF. He nonetheless strongly denied the rumors of an agreement. "There is no place for Grace Mugabe in my government", he repeated at a press conference Sunday in Harare
Eight months ago, Robert Mugabe fell without bloodshed. But Zimbabwe has not yet written the rest of its history: it is at a turning point, while voters must choose the one who will succeed to the head of the country. According to the latest polls, Emmerson Mnangagwa and Nelson Chamisa are neck and neck. But in the face of the machine enjoyed by the head of state, Chamisa can not afford to refuse the support of Robert Mugabe, whatever the intentions that guide him. He knows that his chances of winning are weak, that he would need a large, indisputable victory. It's unlikely. Despite assurances given by Zimbabwean authorities to reassure the international community, doubts remain over their willingness to hold a credible poll.
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