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During a chat, "World" correspondent Philippe Bernard answered questions about the resignation of the British Foreign Minister.
During a chat, Philippe Bernard, correspondent of World in London, answered questions from Internet users on the consequences of the resignation of Boris Johnson from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
One eye: Hello. Is an abandonment of the Brexit process possible? If yes, what would be the most likely route: parliamentary elections, second referendum, "simple" change of prime minister?
Philippe Bernard: There is no question of it at the moment, and the current government crisis nothing changes there. After two years of procrastination, it finally gives the British government a vision for its future relations with the European Union. Things can change in different cases: if the British Parliament rejected the future divorce contract or if the "rebels" Europhobic won and won a vote of no confidence against Theresa May. But its overthrow would not automatically provoke new elections. A conservative prime minister who favors a hard Brexit could succeed him. And even if elections were held and won by the Labor – which the polls do not indicate -, the latter has a position on the Brexit which looks like two drops of water to that of M me ] May. The scenario that most closely answers your question would be a clash in the negotiations with Brussels and a lack of agreement that would precipitate the United Kingdom – and the continent, to a lesser extent – into a serious economic crisis. This is not totally out of the question, given the delay in negotiations and the gap between London and the Twenty-Seven.
See also:
The resignation of Boris Johnson, the beginning of the end or the end of … worries for Theresa May
Bruno: What will become of Johnson? Does he have ambitions?
Ph. B.: In 2016, he campaigned for Brexit thinking he was losing. When the victory came, he did not assume his responsibilities and refused to become prime minister. Today, its time seems past, even if its huge ambitions are probably intact. He has been an execrable foreign minister, absent from most of the world's major files and a gaffer. He who advocates a "global Britain" after Brexit failed to show any leadership. Today, 48% of conservatives themselves believe it would make a "bad leader." But he will return to Parliament as a deputy and may take the lead in an anti-May sling, especially if negotiations with Brussels fail.
321: What were the reactions within the EU?
Ph. B.: Europeans are frightened and tired of British government chaos. The fact that Theresa May seems to have reached a compromise within her own government finally gives a pretty clear basis for negotiations. But the delay has worried Brussels and the continental business community. Yesterday, Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, seemed to caress the idea of a renunciation of London Brexit: "I can only regret that the idea of Brexit was not abandoned with Davis and Johnson [les deux ministres pro-Brexit démissionnaires]. But … who knows?
Politicians come and go but the problems they have created for people remain. I can only regret that the idea of … https://t.co/FUHWt8rnqJ
Séb: Hello, would Europe accept a "soft" Brexit? Michel Barnier and the Europeans are rather favorable to a stronger rupture, no?
Ph. B.: No, I do not think so. A sharp break would mean the creation, at the doors of the Twenty-Seven, of a sort of European Singapore, a country practicing social, fiscal and environmental dumping, in other words a nightmare for the EU. Maintaining strong ties with the EU, including the single market with the British for goods, is now what M me May calls for. But his proposals, which still come back to "to have the butter and the money of the butter", are far from being accepted in Brussels.
Aurélien Lévêque: Given the difficulty to realize the Brexit, there Is there someone or a political force advocating for the EU's retention in the UK? Or at least for a new referendum?
Ph. B.: Many Britons who voted to stay in the EU – they are still 48% – feel orphaned from this point of view. Only the small Liberal Democratic Party and the tiny Greens are openly campaigning for a new referendum and for keeping the EU. Labor, so as not to alienate its voters from the popular neighborhoods who voted for Brexit, defends a very cautious and fuzzy position. Labor does not question Brexit but they want to stay in a "customs union". This is almost the position of M me May. 100,000 pro-European protesters marched in London for the second anniversary of the referendum. Many were singing: "Where is Jeremy Corbyn? ". Rather than walk with them, the Labor leader preferred that day to visit a Palestinian refugee camp in Jordan.
Mat From London: Do you think MM. Jonhson and Davis leave the government to retake the Trafalgar blow that John Major had made to Margaret Thatcher, an internal coup d'etat?
Ph. B.: This intention is lent to him. He can indeed wait for the incompatibilities between Theresa May's position and that of the EU to burst and this leads to deadlock and chaos. But his record at the Foreign Office does not plead in his favor, and his star pales in the conservatives themselves. Many conservative politicians consider it ridiculing and weakening the country.
Paul B: What would be the disadvantages of the "no deal" for the EU?
Ph.B. : The UK market absorbs 17% of the global exports of the 27 EU countries, but this proportion is higher in some countries like Germany and France. The economic shock would be brutal. The region of Hauts-de-France is also very worried about it. The absence of an agreement on border management, or even the return of customs duties, would cause huge traffic jams in Calais and Dover.
See also:
Brexit: the fear of a "no deal" grows in Brussels
Renaud: Is the border with Northern Ireland a stumbling block that can not be solved without a break? Can any solution bring about a resurgence of the North Irish Civil War?
Ph. B.: This is indeed the crucial point. Theresa May's new position in favor of maintaining the single market for goods – and not for services – is first and foremost a response to the need for a return of the two Irish border. The British have long neglected this issue, but the strong solidarity of the Twenty-Seven with Dublin led them to take it very seriously. The need to do nothing that can lead to the return of violence – the establishment of border posts for example – is unanimously recognized. Brexit has another extraordinary consequence: it is based on the question of the reunification of Ireland and is probably speeding up the process.
See also:
A eurosceptic appointed Minister of Brexit after the resignation of David Davis
Ben: How could Michel Barnier, who has repeatedly said that the four freedoms of movement – goods, services, people and capital – were inseparable, could he accept the British proposal to keep free movement of goods? by refusing that of people?
Ph.B. : This point of the "May Plan" directly contravenes the principle of the unity of the European internal market and it may not "pass". But this is a negotiation, and the interest of the Twenty-Seven is not necessarily to aggravate the British political crisis and to abandon M me May in the open countryside. His proposal is clever: the 27 have a large trade surplus with the United Kingdom in goods, especially agricultural products. On the other hand, the British want to keep the right to "diverge" in services (finance, consulting, intellectual property rights, insurance, etc.), where they have a trade surplus this time. One of the objections is that the dissociation between goods and services is becoming less and less operational. See the example of cars, where the value of embedded software will increasingly take precedence over the "bodywork."
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