election at the time of the anti-jihadist war

In his battered house on the border of Bamako, Souleyman Sangaré has a very pragmatic vision of politics. Like all Malians, this calm sexagenarian, who spent his life doing "full of work" and "raising seven children", is about to vote in the July 29 presidential election. The choice is wide. Behind the outgoing president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, twenty-three candidates pose as more or less serious rivals. For Souleyman, Soumaïla Cissé, the main challenger, is "good". Cheick Modibo Diarra? "Good" too. As for the president, he is also "good". "And he has money. And Malians like money, "he says.

The analysis is swift, but the poll that opens is undoubtedly the most uncertain of the country. In the capital, among the posters of the contenders, the atmosphere is curiously sluggish. We do not know if it is the rain that falls, a certain indifference or the fear of the result that seem to divert the voters from the stake.

In savior of the country

"IBK" appears in weakened president by a half-hearted mandate and for many the time of alternation has come. In 2013, in the wake of the French military operation "Serval", which drove the jihadists north, the president had forged the image of the savior of a country on his knees. His uncompromising speech on peace to be found, united in the slogan "Mali first", seduced a country disoriented. Today, this expected peace is not at the rendezvous. Mali is still prey to Salafist armed groups and rebellions with fuzzy contours. The situation, in the eyes of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, has been "degraded". Instability has in recent years won over the Mopti region in the center of the country and the Menaka zone. The peace agreement, signed in spring 2015 in Algiers, accumulates delays in its implementation. "There are small advances but everything is much too slow. The government does not decide, "sums up a senior UN official. The government instability that has marked the mandate – five prime ministers and seven reshuffles – is often blamed. "We never thought it would be easy. The problem is extremely complex. We would have preferred to do better and faster but we will get there, "said Soumeylou Boubèye Maïga, the current prime minister. The president tells him little about this "hardship."

He prefers to highlight economic results, growth and 5% and low inflation, the resumption of cotton production and fiscal stability. But in the country, these large statistics have brought little work and unemployment, unquantifiable, is wreaking havoc. Education remains precarious and, according to the OECD, one third of Mali's immense youth, where the under-20s make up more than half of the 18 million inhabitants, would be illiterate. But the aura of IBK, long known integrity, has more than anything crumbled in corruption cases. The purchase of a presidential plane and orders for military equipment in particular would have given rise to buxom "commissions" according to the press. The figures have never been clearly known, beyond military socks bought for $ 20 a pair, but these over-the-counter markets prompted the IMF and the World Bank to break off their cooperation in 2014. The institutions have since returned. "Corruption remains a major problem. She exploded in plain sight. We have the evidence but nothing is done. Policies are weakened and the administration benefits, "said Mamadou Coulibaly, boss of the Malian bosses.

For the secretary general of the presidency, Moustapha Ben Barka, these cases are "manipulated". "There have been investigations and nothing has come out of it." Still, the support of IBK is becoming more rare. Iman Dicko, powerful president of the High Islamic Council, has moved away. In the region, the neighboring states, while carrying the head of state, are critical.

For the opposition, however, these five years do not allow to hope for reelection. "With such a record, he has no chance. He should have had the courage to act like his friend Holland, "said Tiébilé Dramé, Soumaïla Cissé's campaign director. At 68, "Soumaïla", an old road politician, still a candidate since 2002, dreams of finally reaching power. The man, from the company and international institutions, put his campaign on the necessary renewal. He says he is sure to win. Cheick Modibo Diarra or Modibo Sidibé are trying to play the referees of this duel, as several former IBK ministers recently passed the opposition. "The prognoses are difficult. But it is unthinkable that IBK passes in the first round, "said a Western observer. On the side of power, this "strike" is often mentioned, arousing the indignation of the rivals. "It's not won but not impossible. We will be above 40%, "says Moustapha Ben Barka. "Extremists on both sides are heating up their supporters. It's dangerous. Especially as the temptation of fraud is quite obvious, "says a Western source.

Inconsistencies in the electoral register

The speeches are only harsher and surprising in the country more accustomed to the polite consensus. Tensions mounted again last week when Soumaïla Cissé's party highlighted a series of inconsistencies in the electoral register. "This file is damaged until proven otherwise," says Tiébilé Dramé. For General Siaka Sangaré, in charge of the management of this list, it is a "real-false problem". "The suspicions are linked to a computer error." The controversy is a little down but the confidence, already thin, is more undermined. "This lack of understanding is serious and could lead to post-election problems, especially in case of victory in the first round," fears the senior UN official.

The center of the country, the Mopti region concentrates the others concerns. In this zone where the state is almost absent, the jihadists have clearly threatened the electoral agents and the citizens. However, the province, rather acquired in Cissé, weighs heavy: nearly 13% of the votes. "This is a subject of possible dispute. We encouraged the authorities to publish a list of municipalities where voting would be impossible, but that was not done, "regrets Faroumata Maïga, president of Cosem, a national election observation mission.

The risk that the participation in the vote is low is real. Malians, who rarely speak beyond 50%, could turn away from the polls. Especially the youngest, who do not necessarily recognize themselves in the candidates. The tired and lacking youth is no longer interested in politics. Ras Bath, the star radio host who has joined Cissé, is trying to get them involved. With hard words. "The poll is open. We must avoid having a president whose legitimacy is shaky. That would be the worst, because in this case the peace negotiations would be delayed again, "warns a negotiator.