The post-Mugabe elections, between hope and fears

In the small shack adjacent to the drinking establishment, the billiard balls slam dry and there is a strong smell of beer, but electoral enthusiasm is the only real drunkenness of the day. In Mufakoze, as elsewhere in Zimbabwe, on Monday, July 30, we vote, we voted, we are about to vote. With an enthusiasm and hope that justifies waiting for hours to elect the first Zimbabwean president in the history of the country that is not named Robert Mugabe.

In itself, the absence on the ballot of the name This 94-year-old man, who has ruled the country since independence before being overthrown by the military last November, is exceptional. But the coup d'état of eight months ago, if it allowed his party, Zanu-PF, to remain in power, also triggered deep phenomena. A form of fear has partially collapsed. The hope for change has become more tangible. Emmerson Mnangagawa, Mugabe's close friend who fell in disgrace and took power in November with the support of the military, promises to reform the country from top to bottom. Its main rival, the opponent Nelson Chamisa, says pretty much the same thing. In a country where unemployment reaches 90%, we expect a lot from this new way of talking politics.

Especially since for the first time, an electoral campaign in Zimbabwe took place without massive detectable violence. The main opposition party, the MDC (Movement for Democratic Change) was able to organize meetings, more and more important as the weeks passed. There are finally 23 presidential candidates, and more than one hundred political parties taking part in the legislative elections. Admittedly, liberalization has limits. Testimonies compiled by Le Monde show, in the distant countryside of the large urban centers where are stationed soldiers who lead the campaign "command agriculture" under the responsibility of Emmerson Mnangagwa, "door-to-door" campaigns to push voters to stay loyal to Zanu-PF. We distribute food there. It buys the production – exceptional – of the year above world prices, in a country where the currencies are missing.

"The devil is in History"

Mufakoze, twenty kilometers from Harare, is a city that suffers from both the city's ills and those of the Zimbabwe countryside. This means: vertiginous unemployment, water systems, sewers and electricity stricken. But no agriculture. And, traditionally, a strong presence of security services in case of elections. This time, the pressure eased. Emmerson Mnangagwa needs the legitimacy of an almost acceptable election to make him forget the conditions of his accession to power.

And on this day of voting, everything seems possible. Tafadzwa Sigauke has stopped his activity of money changer to the black, wants to believe in a background of the MDC, but adds: "I'm suspicious. At home we do not say: the devil is in the details, but: the devil is in history. In elections, we have a traumatic history. The trafficked bulletins, the stuffed urns, etc. These people have thirty-eight years of training behind them. He defines his hope in simple terms : "I hope this country will really change. Otherwise, we will all die without seeing what our name looks like on a pay slip.

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                Zimbabwe on the way to the first elections of the post-Mugabe era
    

Like so many other young people, he received directly on his phone a message from a Zanu-PF official inviting him to face-to-face meetings. To vote, you had to go on the lists and give your mobile number. This is the number given to the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC), which Zanu-PF uses to contact voters on the WhatsApp instant messaging application. Fear resurfaces immediately. In the 2008 elections, among other brutalities unleashed against opposition voters between the two rounds of presidential elections in Mufakoze, some were amputated with one hand or one arm. In the end, the MDC's candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, had preferred to give up the victory to Robert Mugabe, so that the massacre ceased.

Uprising electoral habits

Until recently, it was customary to consider that cities acquired from his party, and lost to Zanu-PF, but the campaigns were locked by Zanu-PF. However, the proportion of voters in Zimbabwe is in favor of rural people: with 3.8 million registered voters, they represent two-thirds of the electoral register against one-third (1.87 million) for the urban population. This division is not only artificial, but changing. It does not take into account the fact that the young population has different opinions from those of its elders, is less willing to obey the traditional chiefs, among others. The under-30s account for 43% of the voters.

In Bulawayo, a source in a very rural town, recently told the opinions of his neighbors, trampled on in past elections: "In the last elections , people wrote MDC on their cow, or on the ground with stones. The policemen were going crazy when they saw the flocks passing. But when the results of our polling station were published, the Zanu-PF had won more than 90%, which was impossible.

The techniques of manipulation of results are still numerous. The final electoral roll, for example, was made public only just before the opening of polling stations. The independence of the ZEC, which includes military members, is a major concern. Meanwhile, in another satellite city of Harare, Simba returned home after voting. He is mentally preparing for the day of results, which should be proclaimed within 5 days. In the event of the defeat of the opposition, he is on the same wavelength as his leader, Nelson Chamisa, who has already announced that he considers, in substance, an impossible defeat. "Why did I vote, knowing that they will try to steal the election again? because I want to put my ballot in the ballot box to be able to say: I go down to the street to get what is our return, our victory. Nelson Chamisa has already warned that he would launch, if he judged that fraud had played a determining role, a call for to "paralyze the country" .

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                Robert Mugabe, 94, and any young Zimbabwean opponent