The war is declared to take the head of the Francophonie

La Francophonie entered the campaign to choose the personality that will lead it for the next four years. France and Canada, the two dominant powers of the Francophone organization, have each chosen their champion and are preparing to go to the clash to win their candidate.

Three months before the next summit (October 11th and 12th) of 'International Organization of La Francophonie (OIF) in Yerevan, Armenia, where the heads of state and government will elect the next boss of the Francophonie, the campaign is in full swing with two declared candidates. On the one hand, the current Secretary General of the OIF, the Canadian Michaëlle Jean who is a candidate for her own succession and, on the other, the Rwandan Minister of Foreign Affairs, Louise Mushikiwabo .

The two candidates in the running are engaged in a subtle fight with foil speckled, with rumored weapons, vengeful tweets and articles more or less in favor in the press. Information circulated recently on the Web announcing the entry on the scene of a third candidate, which, if that were to happen, would be likely to upset the situation, currently to the advantage of the candidate of Kigali, supported by the Africa and … France

Advantage Mushikiwabo

If we only have to count the number of supports available to each of the two women, the game seems to have won for the Rwandan candidate. At its recent summit in Nouakchott the African Union – led by Rwanda this year – solemnly solicited the 29 countries of the continent that are also part of the Francophone organization to vote for the African candidate. We remember the successful mobilization of African countries to elect in May 2017 the Ethiopian Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus to the post of Director General of the World Health Organization. The candidate from Rwanda to lead the Francophonie relies on the support of her African peers to win the bet. Rwanda's President Paul Kagame has written to the heads of state concerned to call on them to support his minister's candidacy. Opposite, the Canadian Michaëlle Jean currently only benefits from the support of Canada, Quebec and Haiti, her country of origin.

With Africa representing the majority bloc within the OIF strong of 58 countries – not counting the score of observer countries without the right to vote – it is indeed unimaginable that a future Secretary General can be appointed without being knighted by the majority of African States. It is all the less imaginable that most of the actions carried out by the OIF have on the ground Africa which, according to the statistics of the French-speaking organization itself, will represent by 2050, 85% of Francophones

It is also the argument put forward by France to justify its ostensible support for the Rwandan candidacy for the direction of La Francophonie. Recalling that the center of gravity of the Francophonie was now in Africa, somewhere on the side of the Congo Basin, French President Emmanuel Macron said last May, receiving at the Elysee Palace his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame that in the current context " an African candidacy for the post of Secretary General of La Francophonie (…) would make a lot of sense " and that he would support the candidacy of Louise Mushikiwabo who has, he asserted, " all the powers to exercise this function ."

For many observers, French support for Rwandan candidacy is not self-evident and hides geopolitical and economic calculations that do not say not their name. According to the entourage of the current secretary general, candidate for his own succession, far from being a spontaneous approach, the Rwandan candidacy would have been raised by France, which would be ready to " write-off the Francophonie to reconcile with Rwanda ". The Rwandan authorities accuse the French government of having at least turned a blind eye during the Rwandan genocide, leaving the Hutu perpetrate their macabre violence on the Tutsi population. These suspicions have poisoned relations between the two countries for twenty-four years.

For Jocelyn Coulon, attached to the Center for Research and Studies in International Politics at the University of Montreal, approaching Kigali, France hopes to return to the English-speaking Great Lakes region where Rwanda is increasingly weighing. On Radio-Canada, the academic drew attention to the ability with which the Elysée managed to hide the French aims behind his concern to promote " the African ambition to recover the direction of 'a great international organization that escaped them in 2014 for lack of consensus '. " France has a very oiled strategy ," he added.

Strengths and Weaknesses of the Canadian Bid

The sophistication of the Elysian strategy did not escape the camp opposite. " The first round seems to have been won by Louise Mushikiwabo and her allies, but we have not said our last word ," warns Bertin Leblanc, spokesman for the Secretary General of La Francophonie, Michaëlle Jean

But three months before the election, it is hard to imagine how it could override the almost insurmountable obstacles in its path of mobilizing Africans for an African candidacy and support for this candidacy. from France, the largest donor of La Francophonie. According to an unwritten rule, the position of Secretary General of the Francophone organization has been in existence since 1997 in the countries of the Southern Block of the OIF. In 2014, at the Dakar summit, it was the predecessor of the current tenant of the Elysée Palace, François Hollande who had imposed the Canadian candidacy on his peers, for lack of a consensus among the countries of Africa on the choice of a secretary general from their ranks.

Change of deal with the arrival of a new French president in May 2017. Despite a first meeting in July with the exchange of 'amabilités and mobiles numbers, apparently the current does not pass between President Macron and Michaëlle Jean.Ils profess especially two very different visions of the Francophonie. Rather skeptical about the efficiency of the action of the French-speaking organization, the new tenant of the Elysee believes that it has loaded the boat politicizing its mandate to deal with issues of democracy, rule of law and the defense of human rights. Emmanuel Macron called for a tightening of the missions of the OIF on its fundamental objectives of language, education and culture. The support posted by the French leader to the Rwandan minister, after a time promoting the candidacy of one of his relatives, Lionel Zinsou, the former Prime Minister of Benin, is part of France's desire to reformat the Francophonie

But neither the French critics of his action nor the virulence of the Quebec press who blames him for his financial mismanagement of the Francophone organization and the " sumptuary expenditures " of the Francophonie to assure him " a way of life of little queen ", does not prevent Michaëlle Jean from applying for the renewal of her mandate of secretary general. Calling critics of the media "partisans" who want to target through the person of this former governor general of Canada Canadian federalism which it is one of the most vibrant symbols, the entourage of Michael Jean highlights the record of his actions for four years, at the head of the Francophonie. This is a generally positive assessment, particularly with respect to gender issues, youth education and entrepreneurship

In an open letter published in Canada entitled " Why I want to continue to lead the Francophonie ", Michaëlle Jean returned to the ardor with which the OIF defended under its direction the universal values ​​of" Multilingualism "," ] diversity of cultural expressions of peoples "and" integral humanism ", in the forums of the United Nations, Unesco and the OECD. Admittedly diplomats who sit in these forums, one of the main victories of the general secretary of the OIF was to have imposed the French in these forums where Anglophone unilingualism had become the rule. " A second term would be normal to sustain the open yards in recent years and to bring them to a successful conclusion ", she said during a recent visit to Canada.

" En conformity with the tradition of the OIF, language and value were the two major axes of the action of Mrs. Jean insists its spokesman Bertin Leblanc, suggesting with a spark of mischief at the corner of the eye that this may not be the case if the Rwandan candidate wins in Yerevan. When France asked for the nomination of Louise Mushikiwabo as head of the OIF, the media were indeed surprised at this choice, recalling that Rwanda where it has been officiating for ten years as a minister influential Foreign Minister, French was banned from schools and courts to the profit of English and Kinyarwanda. Moreover, the last official communications addressed by Rwanda to the OIF of which Kigali is one of the founding countries, were written in English

The Rwandan candidacy also poses a problem of democracy. Recently, the organization Reporters Without Borders (RSF) issued a statement recalling that the Rwandan regime was not particularly tender with the media. He practices " censorship, threats, arrests, violence, killings " against journalists who dare to denounce the authoritarianism of its leaders, including that of its leader Paul Kagame, who has been in charge of the country since 2003 and who manipulated the Constitution giving itself the possibility of remaining potentially in power until 2034. " How can the International Organization of the Francophonie (OIF) be able to favor the pluralism of the media and the freedom of the press in accordance with its human rights goals, if it is led by one of the main leaders of a state that tramples on the right to information and represses journalists for 18 years ", wonders the

Geopolitical Stakes

The prospect of seeing a close to the irremovable Paul Kagame direct the OIF to both " promoting the Since the adoption of the Bamako Declaration in 2000 by its members, the French language and the French language have not delighted the Canadian authorities either. These support the candidacy of Michaëlle Jean, at the risk of going to the clash with France on this subject. " Dear Emmanuel, we are friends, but on this affair, we will not get along ," Justin Trudeau was declared to the French head of state, according to the confidences made by one of the members of the Canadian candidate's entourage. The Canadian Prime Minister has formalized his support for the renewal of Michaëlle Jean in a long letter to the Malagasy president who is also the current president of the Francophonie Summit.

Even the decision of the African Union to support the candidacy The Rwandan minister has not changed the position of the Canadian government, which continues to call for the renewal of the mandate of its national. Interviewed on the TV5 Monde, Marie-Claude Bibeau, Minister of International Development and Francophonie in Ottawa (1), was rather confident and expressed doubts about the true effectiveness of the African decision to support collective. " The African Union is the place where we can agree to an African candidacy, but does that mean that they will stand in solidarity with the African candidate, she wondered . Or, on the contrary, will they bend for Michaëlle Jean, who has already achieved his mandate and who embodies the values ​​of the Francophonie. Among others, the promotion of the French language, but also the values ​​of the defense of the person and the equality between men and women.

" It is a real challenge for Canada to have a Canadian at the head of the OIF, because there are not many Canadians at the head of large organizations " explains Bertin Leblanc. Canada also has growing economic interests in Africa, particularly in the mining sector, says an economist. This explains why this country has invested so much in La Francophonie, of which it is the second largest donor behind France, accounting for 30% of the budget of the OIF. Will that suffice to influence the African vote, which will undoubtedly be decisive in the battle of Yerevan? It promises to be bloody!

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(1) Following a ministerial reshuffle on July 18 in the federal government in Canada, the Francophonie portfolio has changed ministers. La Francophonie goes under the thumb of Mélanie Joly, Minister of Tourism.