Shock poll shows Gavin Newsom loses double-digit recall vote

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Just before the first televised Gavin Newsom recall election debate began on Wednesday night, a shock poll showed the governor was losing the first question (“Should Gavin Newsom be recalled?”) In double digits.

The survey is from Survey USA and the San Diego Union Tribune, and was conducted among 1,100 Californians from August 2-4. He revealed that 51% of those polled were in favor of Newsom’s recall, while only 40% wanted to keep it. in power. The previous Survey USA / San Diego Union Tribune in May found that 36% were in favor of the recall and 47% against.

Unlike a recent UC Berkeley / Los Angeles Time poll which was weighted by the likelihood that the respondent would vote in the September 14 recall election, the Survey USA did not have such weight, which is even more alarming for the governor. The Berkeley / Los Angeles Time poll found double-digit opposition to the recall, but deadlock when weighted by the likelihood of voting. The polls have consistently shown a large gap in enthusiasm, strongly suggesting that Republicans are more likely to come forward.

California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks at a rally where he would sign the California Return Plan Relief Bill on Tuesday, July 13, 2021 in Los Angeles.
California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks at a rally where he would sign the California Return Plan Relief Bill on Tuesday, July 13, 2021 in Los Angeles.Marcio Jose Sanchez / AP

The other shocking result of the new poll is a new leader on question two (“Which candidate should replace Newsom if he loses question one”): YouTuber Kevin Paffrath, the most prominent Democrat at the bottom of the ballot.

Paffrath received 27% support, with conservative radio host Larry Elder, who has led three separate polls released in recent weeks, at 23% support. The only other candidate with double-digit support was businessman John Cox (10%).


Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer came in fourth with 5% support, while reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner and former Rep Doug Ose are tied for fifth, with support from 4%.

Two Emerson College / Nexstar Media polls – one released in July, the other in August – have shown a clear departure from Newsom over the past two weeks. The August Emerson / Nexstar poll, like the Berkeley / Los Angeles Times poll, showed a dead end.

You can read SFGATE’s analysis on why Newsom could be losing ground here.

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