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The UK’s social distancing regulations may need to stay in place through 2021 if Chinese coronavirus vaccines are not at least 85% effective, government scientists have warned.
An article commissioned by SPI-M, a subgroup of the government’s Quango Emergency Science Advisory Group (SAGE), claimed Britain would face a third wave of coronavirus if vaccinations did not significantly reduce the rate transmission.
The report, seen by The telegraph, says, “Only vaccines that offer high infection-blocking efficacy with high absorption in the general population can relax non-pharmaceutical interventions without a huge increase in the number of deaths.”
“Although the new SARS-CoV-2 vaccines offer a potential exit strategy for this outbreak, it depends heavily on the infection-blocking action (or transmission blocking) of the vaccine and the adoption by the population, both of which need to be closely monitored as immunization programs roll out in the UK and other countries, ”he continued.
In the best-case scenario presented by modelers at the University of Warwick, in which vaccines are able to stop 85% of transmission from vaccinated people, then the lockdown measures should remain in effect until the end May – more than a year after the first foreclosure was introduced in England.
If vaccines result in a 60% drop in transmission, then lockdown measures will need to be replaced with a social distancing regime similar to the one in place in September, with large gatherings still banned until the end of 2021 .
Scientists told government ministers that if Boris Johnson lifted lockdown measures in mid-February, the country could see another spike in infections and a similar number of deaths to those seen in the first wave in April 2020 .
Newly installed UK Vaccines Minister MP Nadhim Zahawi said: ‘We are probably still four weeks before we get some of this data but it should be able to allow us to make plans afterwards … we can see the impact. vaccines on transmission and also on hospitalizations and serious infections. “
A leading UK health expert has said grandparents should refrain from hugging their grandchildren and family even after receiving the coronavirus vaccine. https://t.co/GtTRuehnEQ
– Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) January 22, 2021
A government spokesperson said: “At this early stage of the vaccination program, scientists do not have sufficient data to indicate how the vaccine may affect further transmission.
“Since a large number of people in risk groups are vaccinated, we will be able to collect evidence to assess the impact on infection rates, hospitalizations and reduced deaths. It is important to continue to follow national restrictions, NHS Test and Trace instructions, and to self-isolate if you are asked to do so, even if you have received the vaccine. “
To date, Boris Johnson’s government has given mixed messages as to when the lockdown measures will finally be lifted, with some projections pointing to late spring or early summer.
Breitbart London last week reported that the government had “quietly” extended local council foreclosure powers until July.
Responding to the extension of lockdown powers, London mayoral candidate David Kurten said: “The Johnson regime has again ‘quietly changed the law’ to extend lockdown powers until July 17. The unnecessary destruction of our civil liberties and our economy will never stop until the people stop it. I support the grand reopening. “
Rona Forever! Government scientist suggests British people could wear masks ‘for years’ https://t.co/QlivD7Okfo
– Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) December 3, 2020
Follow Kurt Zindulka on Twitter here @KurtZindulka
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