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The ups and downs of COVID-19 that hit healthcare systems since March 11, 2020 will continue, according to most medical experts. It will be a tough August in the United States, but in September we could see a sharp drop in Delta variant cases. The highly infectious delta now accounts for about 93.4% of COVID-19 cases in the United States, with the vast majority of these occurring among the unvaccinated.
The overall forecast from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is that “350,000 to 1,800,000 new cases will likely be reported during the week ending August 28, 2021.” In addition, the ensemble forecast predicts that over the next 4 weeks, 2,300 to 9,100 Americans will die from COVID-19, bringing the total deaths from the pandemic to 624,000 to 642,000.
The CDC’s ensemble forecast, available on the agency’s website, COVID-19 Forecast Hub, collects data from modeling teams around the world for its repository. The agency then calculates the numbers and offers the public acceptable scientific forecasts.
So, in September, will we finally be rid of COVID-19?
Well no. Like Infection control today® (TIC®) reported, the disease is endemic, presenting other challenges for healthcare professionals, including infection prevention (PI) specialists. Like Saskia v. Popescu, PhD, MPH, MA, CIC, and member of TIC®The Editorial Advisory Board (EAB) wrote last August, ie August 2020, “As we move towards a sustainable COVID-19 response and potentially live with it in a more endemic nature, what will contact tracing look like?” “
The fact that COVID-19 infects animals as well as humans could make contact tracing very different. Meanwhile, America’s healthcare system must survive for the next 4 weeks.
As the experts have said TIC® for months now we have been in control of our destiny. Kevin Kavanagh, MD, another member of TIC®EAB member, puts it this way: “I’m convinced this virus is about one or two iterations away from completely avoiding the vaccine. And remember, we have the lambda variant and the kappa variant that are there behind the scenes, waiting for the immunity to drop and possibly cause another wave. Other experts echo Kavanagh’s “we the people” approach to return to some semblance of our pre-pandemic lives.
For example, Nicholas Reich, PhD, associate professor of biostatistics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, relates The hill this morning that what will happen in the next few weeks is “really hard to predict and really hard to control”. Reich continues: “That’s the bit of optimism we have, is that the reason it’s hard to predict is because it’s sort of under our control as a society to change the course. But it requires everyone to be careful, vigilant, and considerate of each other. “
The main message for IPs to communicate to the public and other healthcare professionals: get immunized.
As Popescu said last December, there must be “a focused effort on immunization education…. NPs have always played an important role in educating and answering questions while touring units and clinics. The distribution of the vaccines will involve information for those who acquire them, but it is also important that we continue to address concerns, questions and reiterate that even with both doses, staff will still need to follow infection prevention measures at the time of delivery. work and home. “
Of course, the CDC is in dire need of vaccinations, again because so much depends on them. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, MD, told CNN that “our vaccines are working exceptionally well. They continue to work well for Delta, when it comes to critical illness and death, they prevent it. But what they can no longer do is prevent transmission.
Walensky is referring to a study released by the agency last week that suggests that people who have been vaccinated but are subsequently affected by breakthrough transmission can spread COVID-19 just as easily as unvaccinated people who are infected.
As Walensky tells CNN, “If you come home with someone who hasn’t been vaccinated, someone who can’t get the shot, someone who might be immunocompromised or a little fragile, someone one who has comorbidities that put them at high risk. , I suggest you wear a mask in indoor public places. “
The focus on vaccination has overshadowed another topic that needs to be addressed: testing.
Linda Spaulding RN, BC, CIC, another TIC® A member of the EAB said that “with the changes underway in COVID variants, it is more important than ever to increase the number of people tested for COVID-19. The Delta variant has now become the dominant variant of COVID, but just behind Delta is the lambda variant of COVID which was first identified in Peru and now identified in South America. lambda is like Delta highly infectious and more resistant to vaccines. This virus has had human incubators for almost 2 years and this gives it a chance to mutate very efficiently. “
Spaulding, of course, hasn’t forgotten about vaccinations and other COVID-19 mitigation measures. “It’s very important to keep testing as many people as possible to keep track of new variants of great concern,” she says. “It’s so easy to get the vaccine, wear a mask and go on living. So simple but so difficult to achieve.
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