Some say “the pandemic is over” in California. Not so fast, say the experts

On a balmy, sunny morning in Santa Monica, Angelica Far lay down on a green lounge chair, sipping iced coffee and soaking up the sun.

The 43-year-old had just arrived from Chicago with her two children and their puppy, a beagle named Bella.

When asked what brought them to Southern California, Far had three words: “Break for sanity.”

And she was not alone. With the decline in coronavirus cases, increased vaccinations and warming temperatures, Santa Monica and other cities have been very busy in recent days with throngs of tourists and travelers, skateboarders, beachgoers and more. brunchers.

After a year of business closures and travel restrictions devastating the tourist economy, traders and visitors alike say business is starting to pick up.

“I feel like the pandemic is over,” said Kemuel Kendrick, 19, who was shopping on the Santa Monica Boardwalk with three friends from Charleston, SC. “Obviously we all have masks, but otherwise, I don’t really have that fear anymore.

But one person’s carefree vacation is another’s sleepless night.

And public health officials are increasingly concerned that next week – the spring break combined with Passover and Easter Sunday – could reverse California’s hard-earned gains against the coronavirus. The confluence of events could trigger an increase in travel, social gatherings and celebrations – all of which could, without precautions, increase the risk of coronavirus transmission.

“What we are seeing now is more travel than we have seen throughout the pandemic, including the Christmas and New Years holidays,” said Dr Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, during a briefing Monday. “I think people took advantage of what they perceive to be a relative rarity of cases, a relative lull where we were, to take advantage of their time off and vacation travel. And what I would just like to say is that we have seen outbreaks after every public holiday – July 4th, Labor Day, Christmas – and we are seeing an increase in the situation right now.

So far, the state has not experienced the same type of spike in coronavirus cases that raised alarm bells in other parts of the country.

But California has apparently been a first outlier in the past, only to be hit later.

Health experts say the next few weeks will be crucial for California to reduce rates of COVID-19 infection and allow many more people to get vaccinated.

“I know it’s been very lonely for a lot of people. It has been difficult, ”said Dr. David Hayes-Bautista, a distinguished professor of medicine at UCLA’s David Geffen School of Medicine. “So there is a real temptation to go wild just for one night because ‘it doesn’t matter’. Well, this is important.

In many ways, this time of year seems tailor-made to test the resolve of Californians weary of the pandemic.

It is the spring break season, and many people – especially young adults – may seek to forget about their disrupted life for a while. Holidays like Easter and Passover are normally reasons to celebrate with family, friends and companions in the faith.

Calls for continued vigilance can also fall on deaf ears in a state like California, where COVID-19 appears to be in the background. Cases, hospitalizations and deaths are on the decline and vaccinations are on the rise.

Things have gotten to the point where some areas – including Los Angeles and Orange counties – are on the verge of unlocking more of their savings, opening up new opportunities for residents to socialize and let off steam.

Already, companies are preparing for a boom.

David Hardie, manager of the Water Grill restaurant on Ocean Avenue in Santa Monica, said the number of diners has grown steadily over the past two weeks. On Sunday, the restaurant grossed $ 19,000 in breakfast sales, he said. They would have had the chance to break $ 6,000 during the darker days of the fall and winter wave.

“Things are definitely coming back,” Hardie said as waiters carried dishes to diners, including a handful who were seated at tables inside. “And we are very excited.”

However, all of this good news does not remove the agonizing thorn on the collective side of the state.

“It is a deadly and serious virus. It doesn’t take spring break, it’s not summer vacation. We have to defeat it, ”Governor Gavin Newsom said last week.

As of Sunday, the seven-day national average of newly reported coronavirus cases was 61,632, up 13% from the previous week, according to data from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

California, however, is moving in the opposite direction – at least for now. Over the past seven days, the state has reported an average of 2,546 new coronavirus cases per day, a 24% decrease from two weeks ago, according to data compiled by The Times.

CDC data shows the state’s latest seven-day case rate per 100,000 population, 42.8, is the second lowest among all states and well below the national rate of 130.

The comparable rate over the same period was 450.4 in New York, 237.3 in the rest of New York state, 162.3 in Florida and 92.8 in Texas.

It’s unclear exactly why the California numbers are so comparatively good at this point. However, some health officials point to the fact that other states have moved to rescind masked mandates and relax trade restrictions related to the pandemic much more widely.

“I think the reason we’re seeing this leveling off and a slight increase that we hope doesn’t turn into a surge is because we’re really doing things prematurely right now when it comes to l ‘openness,’ Dr Anthony Fauci, the country’s leading infectious disease expert, said in a briefing Monday.

Others wondered if California could benefit from the fact that so many residents have some degree of protection from COVID-19 – either because they have already been infected or because they have at least been infected. partially vaccinated.

“At the moment, we don’t know what drives our current good experiment,” said Paula Cannon, professor of molecular microbiology and immunology at USC’s Keck School of Medicine, on Monday. “But whatever it is, I hope we keep doing it.”

But health officials are quick to point out that California does not exist in a vacuum.

“Last year indicates that the number of cases on the East Coast often increases before the West Coast and that generally LA County is a few weeks behind New York,” the director of health said last week. Los Angeles County Public, Barbara Ferrer.

That’s why this time of year raises so many warning flags for health officials and experts, who say that travel – whether it’s vacation, spring break, or just for fun – only increase the risk of spreading and contracting the coronavirus.

“This is our concern. People were locked up, locked up for a year, ”said Hayes-Bautista. “There’s going to be a real temptation for these young adults to go out and meet friends.”

On Sunday, 55,169 passengers went through security at Los Angeles International Airport. This is the highest figure in a day since the start of the pandemic, a spokesperson said, but still less than half of the number of people who passed through the airport on the same date in 2019 .

“We don’t yet have enough people vaccinated for us to have full resilience to adjust to any complete relaxation of behavior,” Cannon said. “We’re almost there, but we can be derailed if a lot of unvaccinated people travel carelessly.”

Stephanie French, 32, and Mariah Sand, 39, flew to Los Angeles from Seattle early Monday to enjoy the beach. They planned to recover the red eyes that night.

“We just wanted some sun,” French said.

Neither she nor Sands wore a face mask – French said she lost hers on the beach – and neither knew if they would take the COVID-19 vaccine. They also said they were not worried about a new outbreak or new variants of the virus.

Eric Rush, who works a t-shirt stand on the promenade, was happy to see so many people. Over the past year the booth has been closed for months and in December it caught COVID-19.

“It feels like it’s summer,” he said, gesturing to the beach right behind him, where dozens of people splashed in the waves. “I just hope everything can get back to normal. I mean, this is LA, after all.

Due to the delayed nature of the coronavirus, it will take weeks to determine if a spring outbreak will hit California.

Even if it does, some experts have said they hope it will be much milder than the devastating wave that devastated the state over the fall and winter.

“If we have another flare, what we probably would have is a flare-up of infection without devastating consequences, as the most vulnerable people are over 65, people with underlying health conditions, the most vulnerable people. frontline workers and so many people. these have been vaccinated, ”Cannon said.

Joe Dubois, 27, was among the crowd watching skateboarders in the Venice Beach skate park on Monday.

Dubois, who lives in South Pasadena and works in software engineering, said he was encouraged to see positivity rates improve locally.

“Things are definitely slackening off,” he said, noting that he’s been more and more comfortable spending time with friends outside and even occasionally welcoming someone inside. interior.

Still, he’s cautious and cautious when it comes to following masking and physical distancing guidelines.

“My behavior has not changed, but my state of mind has changed,” he said.