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A series of recent delays from Starship and Starlink have pushed the SpaceX Starship flight test and two Falcon 9 launches into the same roughly 25-hour period, potentially paving the way for a frenzied Wednesday and Thursday.
SpaceX announced a third delay for its Starlink-16 mission at the end of Jan. 18, pushing the launch no earlier than 8:02 a.m. EST (1:02 p.m. UTC) on Wednesday, Jan.20 “to give more time for pre-launch inspections.” “Delayed 18-19” due to adverse weather conditions in the recovery area, “Monday’s technical delay means Starlink-16 should now take off as little as 25 hours before a second Falcon 9 launch is scheduled .
Known as Transporter-1, the mission could launch between 9:24 a.m. and 10:24 a.m. EST (2:24 p.m.-3:24 p.m. UTC) on Thursday, January 21, and will be the first dedicated launch for SpaceX’s Smallsat Rideshare program, the second on the East Coast. polar launch in half a century, and the very first Starlink polar launch. Meanwhile, although much less certain, Starship’s prototype SN9 is gearing up for a fifth static fire attempt that could – if successful – precede a high altitude launch attempt by a day or two.
According to documents known as Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFR) filed and approved by the FAA, SpaceX is targeting Starship SN9’s first high-altitude launch attempt no earlier than January 20 (NET). This timeline is nonetheless highly uncertain and depends on the success of a triple Raptor static shot now slated for January 19.
Within days, SpaceX quickly retired and replaced two of the Starship SN9’s three Raptor engines after completing (with varying degrees of success) an unprecedented trio of static fire tests in about as many hours on January 13. The replacement engines were more or less fully installed on January 16.
This new engine complement adds some level of uncertainty to what has already been a relatively troubled static fire test campaign for SN9, but if the rocket is able to complete a full burn on Tuesday, SpaceX can examine the results. and the Starship SN9’s readiness to quickly determine if a flight test is possible on Wednesday. Already delayed from Monday, it is safe to say that a successful static fire and launching in ~ 48 hours is not exactly the most likely outcome.
At the same time, while still posing significant logistical challenges, two Falcon 9 orbital launches and booster landings within about 25 hours is a much more likely proposition. Currently, all but one of SpaceX’s major seven rocket recovery ships are deployed to support back-to-back thruster landings and one or two payload shroud recovery attempts. Stay tuned for updates as we get closer to the three SpaceX missions.
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