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SALT LAKE CITY – For doctors like Dr Mark Briesacher, COVID-19 trends over the past two months have been a welcome sight.
Utah’s seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases has fallen 87% since its last peak on Jan. 9, according to data from the Utah Department of Health. The current average is now 419 new cases per day, the lowest figure in more than six months.
As cases have plummeted, the disease pressure on hospitals has also slowly eased. As of Friday, 130 people were hospitalized for COVID-19, which is the fewest hospitalizations for COVID-19 since mid-September.
More severe cases have also declined: 74% of the state’s referral center ICUs have been filled, which is a check mark below the warning threshold. Statewide intensive care units were also 69% full, which is also below the threshold, according to data from the state health department.
The data also shows that referral center intensive care units and statewide intensive care units reached 10% of intensive care unit capacity as a result of COVID-19 this week, also for the first time since mid-September. Both had reached 44% and 45% by January 15.
On top of all this, the COVID-19 vaccine has been opened to all Utahns aged 16 and over, which is set to dramatically change the number of Utahns vaccinated in the coming weeks.
“We’re excited about the trends we’re seeing, mainly because it means a lot to patients and families,” said Briesacher, chief medical officer at Intermountain Healthcare. “Fewer people in the hospital, fewer seriously ill people. It’s really good to see.”
While there is good news regarding COVID-19 trends, Briesacher said there is always a risk associated with celebrating the end of the pandemic too quickly. That’s why he and other public health experts are cautiously optimistic as the school’s spring break approaches and as the state-wide mask’s tenure technically ends on April 10.
For starters, more people need to be vaccinated and it is impossible to vaccinate at least 70% of the estimated adult population in a week. Briesacher also pointed out that while cases have declined significantly in recent weeks, they are still relatively high, with 400 to 500 new cases reported every day of the week.
I have great empathy for the fact that this disease continues to create such a burden on our communities, on individuals and on families. We owe it to them to stay vigilant and keep moving forward in the right way until we can really pack this thing.
–Dr. Mark Briesacher, CEO at Intermountain Healthcare
State epidemiologist Dr Angela Dunn has also pointed out in recent weeks that the number of new cases is leveling off.
“This still represents a lot of new cases,” Briesacher said in a question and answer session on Friday. “We still have a transmission rate in that 7% to 8% range, so we need to be vigilant when it comes to infection control, especially in healthcare facilities.”
He likened the pandemic to a marathon – it’s perfectly fine to celebrate victories along the way, but the race is not over. The goal being that the end goal is not to bring the number of COVID-19 infections back to the levels seen six months ago, but to end as many new cases, severe cases and as many cases as possible. death.
“I think it’s good for a community, especially for our communities, to feel good about the way we’ve responded,” he said. “Let’s stay vigilant. Let’s not lose our advantage; let’s not forget how serious it is. There are still Utahns dying from COVID-19 and when you compare what we have been through, you may mistakenly conclude that, boy, things are OK because they are so much better.
“But if you focus on the absolute numbers… these are the individuals and families who are affected so hard,” he continued. “I have great empathy that this disease continues to place such a burden on our communities, on individuals and on families. We owe it to them to remain vigilant and to keep moving forward in the right way until we can really pack that down. thing down. “
There are a few possible hurdles between now and gaining herd immunity to COVID-19 which Briesacher addressed on Friday.
The first is that spring break at many Utah schools has also started this weekend or is on the horizon. Briesacher recommended families who plan to travel during the break to focus on activities that could be “more outward-facing,” such as small group camping.
“We’ve all seen the photos of the Florida beaches and I know we won’t be like this,” he said. “But there is a risk like there was during the Thanksgiving holiday. You saw the overwhelming response from the community to come together and really mitigate any potential results that could have come from this Thanksgiving holiday.”
The current statewide term is also due to expire on April 10 after Governor Spencer Cox signed a bill passed by the legislature this week to set that date. It should be noted that it will stay in place for schools and can also stay in place for businesses that decide to require masks.
Companies like Harmons, Smith’s and Target have all said they will keep their requirements beyond that date. Intermountain Healthcare also announced that it is requiring employees and patients to wear masks in its facilities even after April 10.
Briesacher said he sees April 10 as the start of the “personal health mandate,” where individuals can make the decision for themselves to continue to wear masks and socialize in public places when this is necessary. possible to avoid the possibility of another increase in cases.
He added that Intermountain and other public health experts will continue to monitor the situation in case there is a further increase in cases and as the future of COVID-19 beyond the pandemic takes shape.
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