Stop the panic on the Delta variant

Delta is now the dominant variant in the United States of the virus that causes COVID-19. It is more transmissible than previous variants and has resulted in an increase in cases nationwide. Los Angeles and Las Vegas have responded by ordering indoor mask warrants, even for those who have been vaccinated. New York City Council Health Committee Chairman Mark Levine said New York City should follow their lead.

Public health officials should ignore these urges and call for even more restrictive measures. Delta is not the existential threat the media claims to be.

Despite the increase in the number of Delta cases in July, hospitalizations increased only moderately, with most of the increase concentrated in areas with low vaccination rates. The COVID-19 death rate per 100,000 population is lower than it was three weeks ago. The reasons are not difficult to understand.

First, the Delta variant doesn’t appear to be particularly lethal. Cases are no more likely to be hospitalized or die than with other variants.

Second, the most vulnerable are largely protected. Licensed COVID-19 vaccines appear to be effective against all known variants, including Delta. Fifty-seven percent of Americans 12 and older – the group for which vaccines are licensed – are fully immunized. Two-thirds of this age group received at least one dose, which offers significant protection although less than two doses.

Among the most vulnerable population, those 65 and over, almost all have received at least one dose and 80 percent have been fully immunized. In addition, in the rare event that vaccinated people are infected, the disease is much less severe than in unvaccinated people.

Almost all of the new cases are in younger, unvaccinated people whose risk of serious illness from COVID-19 is much lower than that of older people. Hospitalization rates in the 0-17 age group, which has the lowest vaccination rates, remain stable and much lower than any other age group.

Ordering closures or mask warrants for the entire population defies common sense. The government should warn the elderly or those with co-morbidities not to take risks if they refuse to be vaccinated.

But in general, Delta poses very little risk to people who have been vaccinated or to those who are young and healthy. The Delta pandemic is likely to peak in the coming weeks as vaccinations increase and those most at risk of serious illness take steps to avoid infection. States with the highest infection rates have already seen new vaccinations rise above the national average.

Fortunately, due to the effectiveness of the innovative vaccines available, Delta will be a limited and transient threat. Let’s stop the panic.

Joel Zinberg, MD, principal investigator at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, worked for 30 years at Mt. Sinai Hospital and was a senior economist and general counsel on the White House Council of Economic Advisers.