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There are many things that happen when Chinese and American leaders meet what appears to be a dinner on Saturday night after the end of the G20 meeting. Two authoritarian personalities will measure their strength in what some call the struggle of the century.
The greatest attention has so far been directed to
the trade war that Trump unleashed by repeatedly charging Chinese imports. But the battle is about more than that. What was a hot topic in seminars and think tanks a few years ago, that China is challenging the United States as the world's leading actor, is now a reality.
The battle is not only economic. China is also rushing and threatening the United States as a political and military superpower in the world. And in Trumps United States, up to now, the confrontation concerns rather than the "constructive engagement" that has characterized politics since Nixon's visit to Beijing in 1972. Then, the idea was that Closer ties with China would open up, plus the country would open not only economically but also democratically. Now, disappointed voices are being heard.
The Chinese economy has certainly in the capitalist direction and growth at a record speed. Since the early 1990s, 800 million Chinese have emerged from poverty and successful Chinese companies have conquered the world. But politically, a little bit has happened. During Xi Jinping's tenure in power, the country has instead adopted a more authoritarian leadership. State elements have grown further and Western countries are disappointed that China has not opened its own market further. Only one party is still allowed and the democratic rights of citizens are limited. The liberalization that many Westerners were hoping for and would expect would result in the broadening of economic ties and the modernization of China, failed.
With Donald Trump at the helm, the cooperation policy has been abandoned. The charges against China are piracy. Instead, it is to consolidate the position of the United States as the most powerful country in the world.
At the same time, both have have a lot to gain from accepting. Thanks to the intensive exchanges and vast holdings of US government bonds in China, they are interdependent. The rights have already been affected. China's economic growth is about to slow down and Trump can no longer boast the quality of its stock. Since September, it has dropped by 10%. And should he be aware of the threat of slaughter of all imports from China because of the dissatisfaction of American voters?
What are the chances of an agreement? Before the meeting, Trump, as often, adopted a tough attitude. He threatens with additional homework and
He told the Wall Street Journal that it was "very unlikely" that he plans to bring the 10% tariff of 200 billion Chinese goods to 25% by the end of the year. .
If this is a typical trumpet tactic, go for it loud, so explain to us that the market profit remains to be seen. Although Trump and Xi Jinping agree on the commercial zone of Buenos Aires, the struggle continues for a long time: economic, political and military.
L & # 39; s economy:
The United States is still the largest economy in the world, but China is approaching the storm. The question is no longer how the country will compete with the United States, but when to go and become the largest in the world. The growth charts give the impression that the United States looks like a jogging runner and China has a sprint runner that quickly interferes. Since 2000, with an economy equivalent to 13% of the United States, China's total GDP now represents 63% of that of the United States in dollars. Corrected for prices and purchasing power within countries, the Chinese economy has already overtaken the United States.
The American dream, which starts with empty hands and ends with wealth, is now easier to achieve in China than in the United States. While China is overall very poor, rapid growth means that young Chinese people are clearly better placed than their parents to reach a higher economic level. The future tide is also greater than in many western economies. Nowhere else in the world is increasing
the number of billionaires in dollars as fast as in China.
Chinese exports are part of economic success. This is at the same time the reason for the discontent of Donald Trump. He accused the main US trade deficit against China, amounting to $ 375 billion, accusing the former administrations of having acted too loosely. China took our jobs and forced the factories to set up, according to Trump. Customs, who have already bought $ 250 billion on Chinese products, hope that it will push China and will agree a series of requirements. Indeed, China stops the theft of technology, opens its markets further and removes state aid to its exporting companies.
China, for its part, sees Act of assertion of what is long suspected: the United States want to retain the country and boost their economic development.
For the economic battle, Xi Jinping's ambitious plan, made in China, also means that China by 2025 will dominate the world in the field of high technology. China should not just have its own technology. There will also be Chinese companies selling to the rest of the world. The country is already at the forefront of the development of artificial intelligence and hopes in the future to trust the national companies, which, according to them, will occupy a prominent place in the world.
Politics:
Along with its growing economic strength, China has broadened its political ambitions.
The Mastodon initiative The new secondary road, one of Xi Jinping's favorite projects, is certainly marketed with economic signs. But it is also a way for China to regain its glory of great power. Thanks to huge investments in infrastructure, trade and transport between Asia, Europe and Africa will be simplified. Never before has a single country invested so much money in infrastructure abroad. Up to now, hundreds of countries have signed an agreement with China. Financing is usually done through Chinese loans. Critics argue, however, that it is "debt diplomacy" in which poor countries are outdoing themselves. When countries are no longer able to repay the debt, they are forced to hand over the decision to the Chinese authorities. This gives China access to the world's strategic poles. This has already happened at a major port in Sri Lanka.
Not just the United States but countries like India and Japan are worried about how China is shifting its positions by using ports and establishing new economic partnerships. India is particularly concerned that Pakistan will join the Chinese economic corridor that crosses Kashmir, where India and Pakistan are fighting. It's a one-way trip, said US Vice President Mike Pence at the Apec Summit (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum) in Papua New Guinea. The fact that the United States is beginning to worry about the influence that China is starting to acquire in the sector of strategic importance shows the initiative launched by the United States in the region at the beginning of the year. Unlike the new Side Road, the Americans have launched a $ 113 billion investment program in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific.
"We do not engender our partners in an ocean of debt – we do not force, corrupt, or compromise your independence," said Pence at last week's Apec meeting in the United States. aim to distance the countries of China and choose the United States.
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The meeting revealed the cracks between the United States and China. For the first time, countries could not reach a common conclusion.
militarization:
Even in defense policy, the situation is worsening more and more. Some went so far that after an eloquent speech by Mike Pence, with harsher rhetoric against China than for many years, he began to talk about a new cold war. Pence blamed China for using not only political and economic resources for little influence in the United States, but also military resources.
Of course, China is rapidly building and modernizing its defense, even if it is even less clear than the United States.
In particular, it has recently been hot around the South China Sea, which China describes as Chinese territory, but which opposes the opposition of US-backed countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia. China has become increasingly aggressive and has installed a military defense on artificial islands to claim its rights.
The Chinese presence and the American hunters who patrol more and more in the region to keep free the fairway, important for trade, are at the center of our concerns. Something that China condemns and considers as an invasion of Chinese sovereignty. It was not so long ago, we were
Close confrontation when a Chinese fighter approached just 41 yards from an American ship that had to turn around to avoid a collision. Here is the risk that the conflict will intensify in a dangerous direction. The tone mode is high.
"We will not be scared, we will not give up, we can not accept the militarization of China in the South China Sea," US Defense Secretary James Mattis recently criticized.
Until the United States is harder to spy on. Chinese nationals in the United States are accused of spying, Chinese investment in the United States is the subject of further investigation and firm plans are to limit the number of Chinese students in American universities.
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