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The Swedish economy is still strong, but the signs of slowdown are now obvious. Finansinspektionen noted this week in its Stability Report that growth was declining, and the National Institute for Economic Research did the same in its barometer. Statistics Sweden revealed Thursday that its GDP fell by 0.2% from the previous quarter. According to Direct, this is the first time since the second quarter of 2013.
These figures do not make the life of the head of the Riksbank and Stefan Ingves any easier. In the fall, the central bank made it clear that she had made her decision. A first rise in interest rates will take place in December or February.
READ MORE: The Riksbank can raise interest rates in the middle of the Christmas trade
Fears about the Riksbank could increase
Criticism of the ultra-light monetary policy of the Riksbank in recent years has been massive. Overall, it is based on the fact that the interest rate has been kept low for several years due to the rise. It is feared that the Riksbank will actually increase the interest rate before it is too late, that is, before Sweden enters into recession.
I do not think that the rise in interest rates this winter will be canceled because of weak economic forecasts. The members of the Riksbank have made it clear that they can tolerate worse consequences for inflation and growth while continuing to grow. In addition, inflation remains close to the target if energy prices are included. And that's inflation, not growth, as the Riksbank observes.
After all, there are concerns about inflation, not least because it is influenced by energy prices. But also that it can be sustained, for example, by the rise in food prices resulting from the summer drought. This effect would then decrease over time, which could have an adverse effect on inflation.
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The worst finances are rising in the future
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However, it is hardly conceivable that lower growth will make rate increases more difficult in the coming years. The Riksbank learns to be overtaken by a first increase before the situation worsens. In addition, a rise in interest rates is now expected from the market. However, if the Swedish economy continues to shrink, it is difficult to see how the Riksbank's forecast for future interest rate hikes can become a reality.
READ MORE: The low interest rate will be a blow to your wallet
In other words, your borane learns to increase slightly in winter, but it is far from certain that there will be many more. Your mortgage rate is also affected by what the US central bank does. The market yesterday interpreted a statement by Fed chief Jerome Powell that Powell was willing to reverse interest rate cuts.
No need to rush to the bank to tie the loan, in other words.
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