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The bonus-malus system has reduced car sales, which means that Swedish GDP has declined for the first time in five years, according to Anna Breman, Chief Economist of Swedbank, who predicts that the GDP figure will again be more high in the fourth quarter.
The 0.2% drop in GDP in the third quarter, the first since the second quarter of 2013, is partly due to temporary factors such as the change in the vehicle tax system, which has significantly reduced household consumption. However, the Swedish economy also tends to fall.
That's what analysts say at the news agency.
Read also: Trendbrott: Now reducing Sweden's GDP for the first time since 2013
"We are witnessing a slowdown in the Swedish economy, which began last summer, but this figure is so low due to temporary factors.The fall in car sales due to the bonus system malus is causing a decline in household consumption We believe that GDP will again be stronger in the fourth quarter, "said Anna Breman, chief economist of Swedbank, at the Direkt news agency.
The bonus bonus system offers a bonus for low-emission cars and a three-year vehicle tax for gasoline and diesel cars.
She added that it is also positive that gross fixed capital formation remains good, registering an increase of 0.8% compared to the second quarter.
"Investments continue to look good, despite the fact that investment in housing has declined," she said.
She does not believe that the expected rise in the Riksbank interest rate is affected by the decline in GDP.
"It was not so bad that the Riksbank came back from a rise in interest rates, because inflation requires a much lower rate than expected." We believe that the Riksbank is looking at this. figure in detail, "says Anna Breman.
Michael Grahn, chief economist at Danske Bank in Sweden, said that the GDP trend was in line with expectations and that the decline in household consumption was partly due to coincidence.
"But we are also seeing now that the construction of housing is down sharply, which is the weight of the image.It also produces industrial production.Trade has certainly made a positive contribution, but it This is because of the considerable drop in imports, "he said.
Even if there are opportunities, there is also more permanent wind for household consumption in the future.
"In the future, we estimate that growth will continue to slow down in annual terms in the fourth quarter.In addition to the modest increase in real wages, home market consumption and possibly employment have reached a peak, which will continue to slow growth, "said Michael Grahn.
He also believes that GDP statistics will not affect the Riksbank after a first rate hike in December.
"Growth is not their main goal, but inflation, but it would make it more difficult if GDP continues to hold steady in the next quarter, and they should still be able to get back on their feet in December. but it is more fragile if someone comes in the summer, as we have explained, "he says.
As a result, GDP fell 0.2% between the second and third quarters, the first decline of a quarter in five years. In annual terms, GDP growth fell from 2.7% in the second quarter to 1.6%.
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