Swedish interest rates have declined on the acidic GDP



[ad_1]

GDP down 0.2% compared to the third quarter of 2017. According to the Direct Consensus forecast for SMEs, 0.0% and 1.9% respectively were expected, while October, Riksbank reported +0.3 and + 2.3%, respectively.

This was great Analysts have tended to find that Swedish-based economists were generally inferior to foreign economists. On the sole basis of the Swedish forecasts, the result might not be surprising, and the big Swedish banks will at least hold back earlier forecasts when the Riksbank raises interest rates.

Erik Spector, director of the Economic Analysis Institute's real economic analysis unit, told the news agency Direct that GDP results for the third quarter were low, although strongly influenced by the temporary effects resulting from the change in vehicle taxes. Other statistics indicate that growth in 2019 seems a little weaker than expected by the National Institute of Economic Research.

Deputy Governor of the Riksbank Henry Ohlsson said it was too early to draw conclusions about GDP results, Reuters reported.

"You have to take this GDP data, especially the first time it's published, with a pinch of salt, and there are usually many revisions," he said.

The euro strengthened just 7 Å against the crown until 10:33, and the TCW index reached 139.48 (138.91). The crown, however, strengthened against a generally weaker dollar of nearly 2 øre at 9.08.

Swedish government bond yields fell by 1 to 4 points, those of 10-year-olds by 3 points, to 0.50%, while the corresponding German interest rates fell by 2 points to 0 , 60%.

European statistics showed on Thursday that Spanish inflation had fallen sharply more than expected in November. Even German inflation has fallen slightly more than expected. German unemployment fell at a record 5.0% in November, after 5.1% in October.

The European Commission's economic barometer declined for the eleventh consecutive month in November, but the decline was less than expected and the industrial climate rose surprisingly for the first time since April.

US government bond yields fell sharply, mainly on shorter maturities, shortly after Sweden's Wednesday shutdown, while the dollar weakened sharply against other currencies, when the Fed, Jerome Powell, said the Fed's rate was now close to the "neutral" level.

"The interest rate remains low by historical comparison, and remains just below the wide range of estimates of what would be neutral for the economy – that is, neither. accelerate or slow down growth, "he said in a speech Wednesday night.

The declaration has been received investors to screw up speculation that the Fed could now lower the level of ambition of a rise in interest rates in 2019.

Economists have however pointed out that the range indicated by Fed members as "neutral" in September was between 2.5 and 3.5%, and that even if a rise until December would increase the upper At the bottom of the "neutral" range, Jerome Powell has not said anything that directly suggests that the Fed would consider staying at this lower level.

The valuation of the neutral range of September leaves room for three interest rate hikes next year, after one in December, without the key rate exceeding the neutral level. (Consensus forecasts by Fed members in September indicated only three interest rate increases in 2019).

USA data Thursday showed that private incomes and consumption increased slightly more than expected in October. However, core inflation in PCE fell at the same time, more than expected, to 1.8%. This was the lowest inflation rate since February.

Capital Economics noted in a customer letter that statistics suggest a very strong introduction in the fourth quarter, so that there are few signs of an acceleration in inflation.

US interest rates continued to fall in European trade on Thursday, but then triggered some of the decline in afternoon trading. At the close of Sweden, the 10-year rate was 3.02%, 5 points lower than Wednesday at the same time. The two-year rate also fell by 4 points to 2.80%.

[ad_2]
Source link