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Recently, the big question was whether the Riksbank would raise interest rates in December or February. But Annika Winsth, chief economist at Nordea, is certain. There will be an increase in December.
"All the obvious signs of a slowdown indicate that the Riksbank wants to be vaccinated.There is a risk that the economy will slow down even more in February and that it is more difficult to argue an increase in the rate of in pension ", writes Annika Winsth in her forecasts.
A higher pension rate also means higher interest rates. But Mr Winsth is not sure that the full increase in the repo rate will be charged to mortgage borrowers.
"While the Riksbank 's interest rate hike alarms, competition in the mortgage market has hardened. It is therefore possible that gamblers do not withdraw the entire mortgage. increase and that the 3-month short-term mortgage rate is not increased as much as the repo rate, "she writes.
It is also expected that the Riksbank will occupy it quite discreetly with interest rate hikes. According to Nordea forecasts, the Riksbank should rise one notch compared to next year as it will be 0% in December. A year later, that is to say in December 2020, the repo rate should be 0.5%.
"Although the increases are not as numerous, it may be wise to get high to raise interest rates.Today, many households are very sensitive to interest, which can affect prices. households with low margins should, in a way, raise the high level of housing rates, for example by setting the interest rate on parts of the housing loan. The differences with floating interest rates are currently very low, especially if the Riksbank raises interest rates very little, "Annika Winsth said.
The mortgage mortgage rate should therefore be about one percentage point higher in two years compared to today. For a household with a mortgage of 3 million Swedish kroner, this means an increased monthly cost of 2,500 Swedish kroner. With a deduction of 30% of the interest rate, the monthly cost plus 1,750 SEK is due.
Board: Interest rate forecasts for Nordea (mortgages with repurchase agreements and interest rates) November 2018
| aujourd & # 39; hui | 3 m | June 19th | December 19th | December 20th | |
| repo rate | -0.50 | -0.25 | -0.25 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| 3 months | 1.89 | 2.10 | 2.15 | 2.40 | 2.95 |
| 2 years | 1.99 | 2.10 | 2.30 | 2.60 | 3.25 |
| 5 years | 2.29 | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.85 | 3.30 |
By: Magnus Gustavsson, [email protected]
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