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China, the world's second-largest economy, contributes about a third of world economic growth. If the economy slows down, almost every country feels it – especially raw material suppliers and exporters of consumer and industrial goods. This explains why the publication of quarterly figures of Chinese growth attracts a large international attention. The published data for the second quarter of 2018 has certainly attracted even greater interest because of the growing trade war between China and the United States.
First, the experts were relieved: China's economic output rose in the second quarter of 2017 by 6.7 percent,
as most had expected. In the first quarter, a slightly higher gain of 6.8% had been recorded and, throughout the past year, the Middle Kingdom had recorded growth of 6.9%. Nevertheless, the economy is moving
From the point of view of the leaders of Beijing, the country is on the right track for its 6.5% growth in 2018.
Debt Cancellation Campaign in Doubt [19659002] From one side, the Chinese statistics leave clear conclusion: The slowdown in growth is not a consequence of the increasing trade tensions with the United States and the uncertainty that results for the public and private enterprises sector. On the contrary, this is due to Beijing's efforts in early 2017 to curb the disproportionate growth of the debt burden in the economy.
As a result, investment in infrastructure projects and production capacity has recently slowed considerably, and growth in industrial output has also slowed somewhat.
But how long will the Chinese government's policy be controlled?
and the reduction of the measured debt can still be maintained when the risks increase regularly in foreign trade? As the "Wall Street Journal" these days in reference to the Chinese government officials reported, rumored in Beijing, the impression that we could have gone too far with the campaign to alleviate the debt. According to the report, other signals already emanate from the government: local authorities are expected to accelerate approved investment projects. Observers also expect the Chinese central bank to relax its policy in the near future and to reduce interest rates.
Although the Bureau of Statistics of Beijing is relatively limited to the effects of the trade conflict with the United States. "Classified, the resulting skid marks should be evident in the near future. This alone because of the Vorzieheffekts: For the
escaping the first US punitive tariffs introduced on July 6, the Chinese pushed their exports to America as far as possible. This explains why China's trade surplus with the United States reached a record high of almost $ 29 billion in June. However, the production of Chinese industry is expected to be lower in the coming months.
The World Economy Has Passed the Zenith
The consequences of increasing trade barriers are further aggravated by this. If US President Donald Trump makes his real threat and extends punitive tariffs to a Chinese export volume of $ 250 billion, the US investment bank Morgan Stanley expects a fall from the growth in China from up to
0.6 percentage point. This also includes indirect effects
could result from a break in existing value chains with Chinese participation. In such a case, the Chinese export sector should close
1 million jobs will be lost, as US Bank JP Morgan Chase recently estimated
that harmful emissions will not be limited to China, however, because of the trade dispute when settled, global production chains are torn and investment flows are diverted. Above all, the uncertainties and friction associated, economists fear, could at least temporarily slow down global growth. In this context, it seems that, along with the slowdown in growth in China, the global economy has also peaked in the current cycle.
(Tages-Anzeiger)
Date created: 16.07.2018, 19:34
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