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Shortly before the most important date of Jean-Claude Juncker's term, the European Commission in Brussels shows moderation. Above all, it is important to continue the conversation when the head of the commission meets US President Donald Trump Wednesday in Washington, they say. Juncker wants to use the deadline to make Trump understand that his bill that the Europeans would impose on the United States when they trade together is simply not true.
But otherwise? No, there is no concrete offer, we say in Brussels at least officially, we do not expect a breakthrough in the trade dispute. Please continue, there is nothing to see here.
In truth, the European Union could hardly be at stake these days. Juncker's visit to Trump comes just days after a NATO summit where the Alliance briefly looked into the depths. All the signs of the tense transatlantic relationship are welcome.
In addition, the US trade conflict threatens to intensify. Meanwhile, Trump has made his threat true and imposed punitive tariffs on steel and aluminum from the EU. The same punitive action now threatens European cars. Not only in Brussels is expected Trump before the mid-term elections in the United States in November to announce the tariffs.
No single European line
The consequences could be costly, especially for Germany. "The US tariff policy will cost the Germans up to 20 billion euros in additional revenue this year," says Gustav Horn, director of the Institute for Economic and Economic Research Marko IMK DER SPIEGEL . According to the International Monetary Fund, global economic output in 2020 could be 0.5% or 430 billion euros less than without a tariff arms race. And EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström, who is accompanying Mr Juncker, warned for the last time in a speech in Brussels that 15 million jobs on both sides of the Atlantic were threatened in the case of rights. customs.
how much they want to respond to Trump's policies. It also limits Juncker's chances in Washington. Although Germany has no major problem to zero tariffs on cars in the United States and the EU and to reach an agreement with the United States and the car countries like Japan or South Korea, France tends to Donald Trump realizes that, of course, and after the split, the tweet that he sent to Juncker by way of salutation came out : he had an idea for the EU, said Trump. "The United States and the EU abolish all tariffs, barriers and subsidies." The man knows how to play Europeans against each other. The French will never give up agricultural subsidies from the pots of the EU.
In addition, the last joint offer of Trump, on which the Europeans could be heard, is almost outdated. On the eve of the Western Balkans summit in Sofia, mid-May, the heads of state and government agreed on a four-point dinner. These included a willingness to talk about energy issues (Trump wants to sell liquefied natural gas to Europe) and a reform of the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Juncker under pressure
Strictly speaking, the offer was only valid in the event that Trump refrained from imposing duties on aluminum and steel. But they do not want to be so petty on the EU side anymore. If all the Member States are in agreement on a proposal, it will also be involved in the talks, they say.
The main European politicians push Juncker, of course, towards much more ambitious actions. "Juncker should propose to resume negotiations on a comprehensive trade agreement between the EU and the US," said Daniel Caspary, a member of the European Union and trade expert.
The problem is that Germans are pretty much alone with this idea of a "TTIP light" in the EU.
Whatever the case may be, the American president will probably not be interested in concluding an agreement with the Europeans. He is particularly interested in noise in business affairs to impress his electorate.
Trump wants to win at all costs as his Republicans win in the mid-term elections. As in the presidential campaign, he wants to score points with a firm attitude on customs issues. The EU should serve as a scapegoat for the various problems of the domestic industry in the "rust belt" of the United States. Indeed, according to polls, Trump's attacks on Europe are well received by part of the working class.
Jean-Claude Juncker
With a compromise between Brussels and Washington, it is probably the first few months. Because it's true: in the end Trump must present a solution to his constituents, otherwise the mood at the base could turn against him. He can not perpetuate the conflict forever, because the American industry is already suffering from the consequences of its punitive tariffs.
Up to now, Juncker's tactics to reduce expectations may not be so bad. EU Commissioner Günther Oettinger hopes at least for the educational benefit of Juncker's trip. "It is our duty to show the President the overall balance of our economic relations." The main message is: Our economic relations go far beyond cars and machines. "
Oettinger alludes to the fact that the trade balance is not so blatant, if you include in addition goods, for example, also services." Does this make an impression on Trump? Trump will listen to the visitor's comments from Brussels, kindly nodding.
And as soon as Juncker leaves the White House, the president will probably tweet again – against Europe.
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