Erdogan works on a dynasty

Berat Albayrak (right), husband of the eldest daughter of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has enjoyed special support for a long time. Here they meet at a rally for the constitutional referendum of last year. (Umit Bektas / Reuters, Rize, April 3, 2018)

Many people speak of him only as the "damat", the son-in-law. But everyone in Turkey knows who it is: Berat Albayrak, the husband of Esra Erdogan, the eldest daughter of the president. Albayrak was at the head of Calik Holding, a government affiliate, which also includes the Turkish press group Erdogan Turkuvaz with the influential newspaper "Sabah" before being elected to parliament for Erdogan's AKP. in 2015.

Shortly after, Erdogan appointed his son-in-law as Minister of Energy. Meanwhile, the 40-year-old man is qualified for higher duties: Albayrak takes over the leadership of the Ministry of Finance, which is merged into the new government with the Treasury. He thus gains a key position

Inflation at its highest level in nearly 15 years

Albayrak has long been considered "the heir to the throne" of Erdogan, 64 years old. He spends a lot of time in the immediate vicinity of the Erdogan family. Albayrak is one of the closest circles in which the suspect Erdogan only tolerates people whom he absolutely trusts. The head of state has two sons, Bilal and Burak. But the Albayrak son-in-law enjoys a special promotion. Because he's considered a shiny head. Independent observers also refer to Albayrak as one of the most competent ministers of the new team that Erdogan unveiled Monday night.

The US-trained economist, who earned his Ph.D. on "Financing Renewable Energy Sources," impresses interviewees with his perfect English. People who know him praise his quick wit. It also needs this because Turkey faces major economic challenges. Inflation has reached its highest level in nearly 15 years, the current account deficit has increased, the lira has lost nearly a fifth of its external value since the beginning of the year. year and foreign exchange reserves of central banks are melting. Analysts See The Warning Signs Of A Financial Crisis

Until now, Erdogan has been working to stimulate the economy with cheap credits, government grants and projects. gigantic infrastructure. Until now, there is no sign that his ally Albayrak will take another course. Former Finance Minister Naci Agbal and Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek, former investment banker, enjoyed a reputation in the financial markets.

Direct Influence on Key Policy Areas

Agbal and Simsek were seen as counterbalancing Erdogan often emotionally and unpredictably active. But none of them belongs to the new government. This indicates that "Erdogan will immediately increase its direct influence on key policy areas without being advised by experts," wrote Commerzbank analysts in a study. Equally worrying from a financial markets point of view: With a decree issued yesterday, Erdogan determines that in the future it will only determine the appointment of the head of the central bank and the composition of the monetary policy committee. Until now, the appointment of the governor of the central bank had to be approved by the Cabinet.

This confirms the fear that Erdogan may seize monetary policy in the future and restrict the independence of the central bank. Investors are alerted. Monday night, the Turkish lira lost more than 3% against the dollar.

Yesterday, the Turkish currency has somewhat recovered. But the new "financial czar", as Albayrak already says in some media, is facing a dilemma: either he continues Erdogan's cheap money policy, which could lead to a hard landing of the bloated economy either it slows growth. a conflict with his father-in-law and boss Erdogan.