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On Friday, the Federal Council debated the proposal for an EU framework agreement – whatever the decision taken, the results are in vain.
Whatever the decision of the Federal Council, there will be a conflict – at home or abroad. (Image: Valentin Flauraud / Bloomberg)
"It is always interesting to exchange points of view," said Federal President Alain Berset (sp.) Tuesday leaving the "Bernerhof" to find out whether he had acquired new knowledge or not. He could simply have said no. Even if the meeting of the Federal Council delegation with the highest representatives of trade unions and employers could remain secret, it was unlikely that the unions would change their positions at the last minute on the institutional framework agreement with the EU. # 39; EU. Their attitude was "clear as glass", as did the union president and the Council of States Council of Europe, Paul Rechsteiner, said after the meeting. Clearly: no concessions for flam measures on the free movement of people.
Domestic blockade
The starting position of the Federal Council is therefore as difficult as ever. Without concessions from Switzerland to FlaM, there will be no framework agreement. And whatever the choice of the Federal Council: there will be a conflict – either on foreign policy or on the domestic political front. If he refuses Brussels, he will not only block the way for new market access agreements such as the electricity deal. It may also expose Switzerland to the needles of the EU. In the short term, you threaten the non-recognition of the Swiss stock market. Among other things, participation in the EU research program and the updating of existing bilateral agreements, such as those on technical barriers to trade, could be jeopardized. On the other hand, if the Federal Council decides to reach an agreement with the EU, the conflict with the SVP, the unions and therefore also the left may occur. It is an unholy alliance that runs the risk of frustrating the agreement in Parliament.
The framework agreement between Switzerland and the EU is controversial. But what is it?
However, the uncompromising behavior of the unions should not obscure the fact that, even in the middle, support for a framework agreement is dissipating. The attitude of the influential FDP advisor Karin Keller-Sutter, who should be elected to the Federal Council on December 5, is symptomatic. In the NZZ, he recently called to wait and wait – after the vote on the initiative of the SVP aimed at ending the free movement of people, which should not take place until 2020. The agreement -frame "will build a roof on the bilateral road", she said, "without knowing if the walls will support even in a few years". Although it is not excluded that Switzerland should at most pay a price "in the form of some harassment" in the case of an agreement with Brussels, but "may have to we simply bear it.
"Moment of decision"
In this dilemma, the Federal Council has to answer Friday the following questions: what is enough, after four and a half years of negotiations with the EU, to serve the interests of Switzerland as a whole? Should the price that should be paid for orderly relations with Switzerland's main trading partner be appropriate or is the cost too high? What consequences can we expect if the Federal Council rejects the current offer of the EU? At best, would Brussels accept another delay, especially since two of the seven members of the Bundesrat will be replaced in this hot phase? And is it really out of the question for the EU to make further concessions?
It is quite possible that the Federal Council will not adopt any decision concerning the framework agreement this Friday. In any case, the notices did not seem to have been delivered on Tuesday. However, the time window could close relatively quickly. Recently, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz made it clear in the NZZ: "I have always campaigned for the understanding of Switzerland, but the timing of the decision comes at some point.This is today." On the other hand, the Federal Council is expected to put into effect on Friday the long-anticipated Swiss market protection decree, effective December 1, especially since no decision by the European Union regarding a possible extension of scholarship recognition is expected by the end of November.
In the meantime, to decide on the framework agreement, it will have to evaluate in detail the offer of the EU available today. This is a secret, but can be traced in the main features because of the information available. And it contains some successful trading from Switzerland. This includes limiting the scope of application of the framework agreement to five key (and all new) market access agreements: the free movement of persons, land transport agreements. and air, technical barriers to trade and agriculture; In total, there are more than 120 bilateral agreements. With the dynamic adoption of the new Union law, to which Switzerland would in principle commit in these five agreements, Switzerland would not only have two, but three years to transpose it into Swiss law. In the event of an inconsistent divergence on the interpretation of bilateral agreements, the settlement of the dispute would be delegated to a joint arbitral tribunal instead of the Court of Justice of the European Communities. It is also said that he is more independent than what the UK and the EU have agreed in the withdrawal agreement. And in the case of state subsidies to companies badly seen by the EU but widespread in the cantons, Switzerland was able to avoid an abstract regulation of the framework agreement as well as its control by a supranational authority.
Permanent problems
On the other hand, Bern has bitten into granite in accompanying measures designed to prevent wage dumping. This was to be expected, especially as persistent divergences on the proportionality of some of these decisive measures were favorable to the demand for an EU framework agreement. In the present state of affairs, therefore, Switzerland should also, in principle, also resume the right of the EU secondment. As a partial success, the Federal Council could at least announce that the EU has apparently agreed to explicitly accept some FlaM. This includes the pre-registration deadline for foreign companies wishing to send workers to Switzerland. However, the deadline should be reduced from eight days today to four working days. A deposit requirement would also allow Brussels in Switzerland, especially for companies that have not complied with local rules. On the other hand, the controls to comply with them should no longer be applied nationally but only on the basis of risk.
The EU Citizenship Directive remains a thorn, especially for citizens, as it provides for a more generous right of residence, faster access to social assistance and expatriation conditions. more restrictive than current bilateral regulations. Informed sources have been able to prevent this directive from being explicitly included in the framework agreement, but this has not been explicitly ruled out. Thus, the ground would be free for disputes over which, in a few years at most, the arbitral tribunal would rule. Finally, another national political detonator might contain the termination clause of the framework agreement, insofar as it would be associated with a guillotine for all subordinate agreements.
Even before the European debate in the Bundesrat, the Council of States wants to send a signal to Brussels. It must be Thursday on the second contribution of Switzerland to cohesion. It seems that a majority is emerging, although favorable to the framework loan, that it does not want to trigger it "if and as long as the EU adopts discriminatory measures with respect to Switzerland".
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