Iran: The country could paralyze oil trade in conflict with the United States

The message of US President Donald Trump to Iranian President Hassan Rohani was clear: "Never again threaten the United States, or you will feel consequences that few in history will feel have". He tweeted Trump in response to a speech by Rohani, in which the Iranian president had threatened to block the oil export routes into the Persian Gulf

After the unilateral elimination of the agreement nuclear in May, the verbal threats between Washington and Tehran will be more severe. Economic pressure on Iran is rising. One of the declared goals of the United States is to stop oil exports from the Islamic Republic until early November. Iran, in turn, has a geostrategic effect: the strait between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula.

The Strait of Ormuz is the world 's largest bottleneck for oil supply, according to EIA. In 2016, 18.5 million barrels (159 liters) were transported daily across the waterway. This is a nine percent increase over the previous year. In 2015, about 30% of the world's maritime trade in oil and other liquids crossed the strait.

The connection between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is still superior to the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia.

At the narrowest point, the Strait of Ormuz is about 54 kilometers wide. Given the territorial waters of the two states, the result is a narrow navigable corridor. The shipping lanes therefore only have a width of about 3.7 kilometers in each direction, separated from an equally wide buffer zone. The road is deep enough to allow the world's largest tankers to pass with a dead weight of 500,000 tonnes.

On the Strait of Hormuz, according to the EIA, especially the Asian market is supplied with oil. Thus, 80% of shipments are mainly destined for China, Japan, India, South Korea and Singapore.

Pipelines are said to be around the bottleneck

The bottleneck is also of paramount importance for the supply of liquefied natural gas. The main exporter, the Emirate of Qatar, exported about 104 billion cubic meters of LPG in 2016 via this route. This represents more than 30% of world trade.

Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates operate pipelines that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz and transport oil out of the Persian Gulf. They had an estimated capacity of 6.6 million barrels a day by the end of 2016.

Both countries want to increase their ability to bypass the geopolitical bottleneck. According to the US information service Stratfor, for example, the United Arab Emirates plans to ship nearly half of their exports to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman in late July

Because the waterway between l & # 39; Iran and the Musandam Peninsula of Oman is so narrow, it can be controlled with relatively simple military means. However, the Iranian navy and the Revolutionary Guards assigned to military tasks would be inferior to US forces in the event of a direct armed conflict.

The 5th US Fleet stationed in Bahrain is currently present with the warship Iwo Jima. An American carrier is currently not stationed in the Persian Gulf. The Revolutionary Guards and the Iranian Navy are trying to compensate for military inferiority by using speedboats. The fleet of speedboats and racing boats is equipped with Chinese missiles and cruise missiles and can therefore make quick and accurate shots.

A mining threat would paralyze maritime traffic

However, it may be enough that Iran threatens to block the Strait of Ormuz, for example through minefields, says Steffen Bukold, head of the EnergyComment Energy Service Service in Hamburg. For even in the case of a credible threat, the insurance companies would refuse to cover the ships. "Then nothing else works."

Iranian soldiers repeatedly made small bites against the United States until the end of last year. For example, fast boats approached US warships on patrol, or drones flew close to the landing planes. However, incidents that have occurred since the takeover of US President Trump about once a month, according to the US Navy, have remained since the beginning of the year.

Meetings between US and Iranian forces have also occurred in the past. In mid-January 2016, for example, two US patrol boats entered Iranian waters, apparently due to a faulty navigation system. Iranian troops arrested the ten soldiers. A day later, they were released. The images, which showed her kneeling, her hands clasped behind her head, were used in Iran for propaganda purposes. In the United States, Republican politicians in particular were angry.

According to Bukold, it is not certain that this will lead to an open confrontation. He considers that a real military conflict is unimaginable. In the past, Tehran has always avoided a major escalation. This time, however, Iran could be put under pressure because of Washington's diffuse threats. More and more trading partners withdraw

Turkey's largest oil exporter, Tupras, has reduced imports from Iran since May. This is surprising considering the amount of oil that imports the country of Iran. While it was still 240,000 barrels a day in April, only 130,000 barrels a day were imported from Iran in May and June. "The Iranians could really have problems getting rid of their oil," says Bukold. [ad_2]
Source link