Presidential Election in Mali – a dream of stability

Despite a UN peacekeeping mission involving the Bundeswehr, radical Islamists in Mali have vast tracts of land under their control. According to experts, the blue helmets are protecting themselves above all, but groups linked to the al-Qaeda terrorist organization are extending their sphere of influence in the Sahelian zone. The 1,000 or so soldiers of the Bundeswehr have to settle because of the difficult security situation of a long mission. The presidential election on Sunday will not change much.

Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (71 years old), candidate for a second term in this country of West Africa, has only a meager record: Mali is one of the poorest countries in the world. The infrastructure is desperate in many places and nearly half of the primary school children – about 1.2 million – do not go to school. Since coming to power in 2013, radical Islamists have extended their sphere of influence from the northern desert to the populated center of the country. The number of attacks has increased sharply. In Mali – and in some donor countries – disillusionment prevails.

Despite international military action and hundreds of millions of euros for the Malian government and security forces, the security situation continues to deteriorate, according to the Malian expert Andrew Lebovich of the European Council of foreign relations. In addition, security forces are responsible for attacks on the civilian population, which allows jihadists to recruit new recruits, said Lebovich

Soumaïla Cissé, the rival of Keita, promises change and renewal of voters. The 68-year-old man tried twice in vain the highest position of the state. The leader of the largest opposition party is hardly regarded as a hope; nor does it have recourse to patents to pacify the country. But many voters are so disappointed by Keïta that they yearn for a change.

Most observers are still waiting for Keïta to win the elections, even though Cissé is likely to force the president to a second round. This would take place two weeks later. The other 22 presidential candidates, on the other hand, have little luck. Eight of the 18 million Malians have the right to vote. The initial results should be announced by the end of the week

Achieving stability in Mali is also important for Germany: first, the state is a transit country for migrants and migrants. second, if the state collapses, the north would be the ideal haven for radical Islamists. Art – and only a border of the Mediterranean. This is not an exaggeration: in 2012, Islamists affiliated with al Qaeda took power in the north of the country following a Tuareg uprising. Only through a French military intervention in 2013, Islamists were repulsed. But in the center and in the north of the country – an area of ​​about twice the size of Germany – the Islamists are once again controlling vast areas of land. There, only a minority of people will vote, making a credible election unlikely, as the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank experts say.

Mali often looks like a bipartite country: the vast majority of the population and politicians the capital Bamako and in the more fertile southern regions, the problems of the Sahel are far away for them. Rarely do politicians dare to go to the cities of the northern Sahara, like Timbuktu or Kidal. In the bustling city of Bamako, however, most of the time, only UN vehicles and the enormous security measures in front of government buildings and hotels are reminiscent of the conflict in the north.

Efforts are not lacking to attack the terrorists militarily: France has deployed about 4,500 soldiers in the Sahel zone with its anti-terrorist Barkhane mission. The UN peacekeeping mission (Minusma) – currently the most dangerous in the world – is trying to stabilize the country with nearly 12,000 soldiers and 1,700 policemen. Then there is the G5 multinational troop from the Sahel region, which has up to 5,000 men and is still under construction. German soldiers are stationed mainly in the northeast of Gao. For the Bundeswehr, the UN mission in Mali, with just under 1,000 troops behind Afghanistan, is the second most important foreign mission. It currently costs around 270 million euros a year.

For development aid, however, receives from Germany since 2013, on average, only about 70 million euros per year. However, according to experts, Islamists can only be defeated sustainably if the state manages to provide citizens with basic services – schools, hospitals, police and a functioning judicial system. "Islamists are very adept at exploiting widespread and deep state discontent, particularly in the area of ​​corruption, lack of government support, and lack of security," said Corinne Dufka, a West African expert. Human Rights Watch. overwhelmed. For example, according to Unicef, one in ten children dies before the fifth birthday; in Germany about every 260th child. And the problems worsen: Mali has one of the highest birth rates in the world with 6.1 births per woman. According to UN forecasts, the population is expected to double by 2050 to reach more than 40 million people. Millions of young people will soon need jobs. If they do not find them, they could become easy prey to the promises of Islamists.