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Expectations in Moscow are low before the Russian-American summit in Helsinki. President Putin is relatively calm in meeting with his unpredictable counterpart, Trump.
Expectations are not high for the first real bilateral meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Photo: Andrey Rudakov / Bloomberg)
No one thinks of a "reset" button, as Hillary Clinton brought it to Geneva in March 2009, to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The idea of releasing Russian-US relations from the burden of the past with a symbolized "new beginning" and embarking on a new and constructive stage would be, in the circumstances, much more foreign to the world than there is. nine years.
A lot of ballast in relations
When US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet Monday in Helsinki, the Finnish capital, for their first real bilateral meeting, expectations are not high. The ballast has not declined since the "reboot" failed under its predecessors Obama and Medvedev – on the contrary: the Russian annexation of Crimea, the intervention in the east of 39; Ukraine and Syria and the interference in US domestic policy have increased. 19659009] No Russian comment on the subject has recently given up on the statement that for Putin it was just a success that both were even in this format. Both parties participated in the realization. The absence of speech should end. It had been exacerbated by the expulsions of diplomats and the spiral of American sanctions, and had created the threat of a global conflagration in April in the face of the military clash in Syria in Moscow.
Russians and Americans were not really speechless even at this recent spike in tension. But it is not only Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Center in Moscow, who believes that the management of this now open relationship can be improved . An improvement could be that the chairs engage in a renewed dialogue on strategic issues. The "New Start" disarmament contract linked to the "Reset" of Obama and Medvedev will have to be extended. The FNI treaty on the destruction of short and medium-range missiles is the subject of mutual allegations. Experts also point to the danger of cyber attacks and nuclear weapons manipulation.
Serene Russians
Russia can more easily embark on this unpredictable encounter than the United States. The Kremlin does not expect revolutionary decisions, but more than beautiful words. From the Russian point of view, this could be a joint declaration of the two heads of state, for which, according to the newspaper "Kommersant", the Kremlin submitted a project in Washington. It should therefore take further steps to improve relations, reduce clashes and develop contacts between diplomatic and military authorities. But we should also name the problems for such an outcome to be taken seriously. The Russians are well aware that Trump himself can not make most decisions himself – either in terms of sanctions or when reinstating the G-7. As a result, expectations are modest.
The greatest serenity of Russia has several reasons. Trump is under political pressure – especially because of the dazzling connection of Russia. From the Russian point of view, the president would be ready to approach Putin immediately if he was not bothered by the lamentable allegations of Russian involvement in the US election campaign. The Russians have also been overwhelmed by the extreme difficulties Trump has shown Russia with pressure on the White House. Moscow will never admit interference, but, according to Russian commentators, could accommodate Trump by stating that Russia has never and never will. If Russia's disinfestation campaigns and cyber-attacks in the United States collapsed, Russia would have increased Trump's internal margin.
Putin does not feel the political pressure in front of the summit. He is undisputed, especially his foreign policy is from the point of view of his constituents the greatest asset. The zenith of the agreement, which Putin owes to the open confrontation with the West, is indeed outdated. There are more and more voices disturbing the fact that Russia is showing strength in the world, but there is a lack of resources to improve living conditions in its own country.
One thing does not exclude the other. It would be a mistake to assume, therefore, that these citizens would be ready to give up on Russia's renewed role in the world. What a majority in the country understands as "respect for Russia" – the spread of fear and a call to the esteem of confrontation – should not be sacrificed to Americans.
The Trump petitioner
From a Russian point of view, there is no reason for that, especially since Putin's starting position would have could not be better in the face of an increasingly divided West. Russia sees Trump more like a petitioner. In Syria, the Americans accepted the position of Russia and therefore the domination of Assad. Moscow could negotiate a settlement on areas that have not fallen to its troops, and the presence of Iranians. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recently met with Putin frequently.
Ukraine, on the other hand, should not be at the center of discussions. But secretly, the Russians should expect Trump's unpredictability, such as Trump's summit in Singapore with Kim Jong Un of North Korea. The recognition of Crimea's membership in Russia, with which Trump recently played, would be a propaganda blow to Moscow in the face of opposition from the EU and the United States.
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