[ad_1]
The Swiss economy was slightly contracted in the third quarter of 2018. There were no German or foreign impulses, which led to a rather surprising decline. However, positive export figures already known in October suggest that growth will again be better in the current fourth quarter.
Between July and September, real gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.2% quarter on quarter, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) said Thursday. However, compared to the same quarter of the previous year, this still corresponds to growth of 2.4%.
Surprisingly heavy
The Swiss economy experienced very strong growth in the second quarter, with values (slightly revised) of 0.7% compared to the previous quarter or 3.5% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. The phase of strong growth in the Swiss economy, which has been going on for a year and a half, was suddenly interrupted, he said. seco to do. At the same time, Switzerland is following the significant economic slowdown observed in other European countries, particularly Germany.
The experts surveyed by AWP expected much stronger growth in the previous quarter and an increase of 0.2 to 0.6%. But even the Seco is surprised. "The coming slowdown was evident because of the third quarter's export data, but we were not expecting the intensity of the recession," said Roland Indergand, Seco's sales manager, at the agency. AWP press.
No domestic impulses
Above all, it was surprising that domestic demand also fell. After a period of slowdown in Europe (especially Germany) and Asia, no foreign stimulus would come, it was clear. But that too consumption and investment would be so low surprised.
Specifically, private consumption spending in the third quarter barely increased to 0.1%. Here, the desire to make larger purchases in a context of low real wage developments was low, Seco said. State consumption expenditure (-0.1%) was slightly reduced.
In terms of investments, those under construction (0.02%) have more or less stagnated. And investment in equipment (-2.0%) fell sharply in almost all categories: only a few more machines were invested in machinery than the previous quarter, according to Seco. Along with the decline in domestic demand, imports of goods and services (-1.6%) also fell sharply.
No technical recession
On the production side, value added in the manufacturing sector declined slightly (-0.6%). In the context of the very dynamic growth of recent quarters, however, this amounts to a standardization at a high level, writes Seco. In the energy sector too, value added declined after two very positive previous quarters (-2.2%). The dry summer has resulted in production losses in hydroelectric plants.
In parallel with the decline in production in these sectors, exports of manufactured goods and energy have declined sharply. Total exports of goods (-4.2%) declined significantly. After all, foreign trade figures for October (6.3% in real terms last month) already suggest a strong recovery. The GDP figures are because with great caution to profit, said the head of Indergand Seco.
"A so-called technical recession – two consecutive quarters with negative growth rates – would be very surprising," he said. For example, in Germany as well, and therefore Switzerland's largest trading partner, we expect a recovery in the current quarter. The decline in the third quarter is due in part to special factors in the automotive industry. (Sep / SDA)
Created: 29.11.2018, 07:48
The update follows …
Source link
