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The Swiss economy was slightly contracted in the third quarter. Even for Swiss economists, who closely follow the course of the local economy, the marked slowdown after the strong second quarter is very unexpected. Especially the low consumption causes frowns.
Economists surveyed by AWP were expecting growth in Swiss gross domestic product of between 0.2% and 0.6% between July and September 2018. Now it was down 0.2%. There was no impetus either from home or abroad.
The third quarter shows once again how Swiss statistics could be unpredictable, said CS economist Claude Maurer at the AWP news agency. "The factors that few of us have on the radar – such as the reduction of hydroelectricity due to drought – can have a major impact."
The energy sector partly explains the slowdown
Nevertheless, he finds some explanations. "As expected, heat has dampened retail sales, which explains, at least in part, surprisingly low consumption." In foreign trade, Switzerland could not escape the "weak car" of the main trading partner from Germany.
Even for economist UBS Alessandro Bee, the decline in GDP is "certainly surprising". But he also has explanations. For example, the sporting event that expired in the third quarter contributed to the weakness, he told AWP. It is well known that the Olympic Games and the Football World Cup took place in the first half of 2018, which led to an increase in license fees for international sports associations based in Switzerland.
The low value creation of industrial Bee brings down the slowdown of the economy of the euro area. In contrast, relatively low consumption in the context of a vigorous job is more surprising, Bee said. However, he reintegrated it into the equation: "Because GDP has risen sharply in previous quarters, I would call it a consolidation, not a general weakness," he says.
Economy "landed in the ditch"
In the meantime, Thomas Gitzel expresses very clearly the VP Bank of Liechtenstein. "The Swiss economy was on the fast track in the first half – now the journey ends abruptly in the ditch," he wrote in a commentary. The narrowing is a surprise for him. The decline in exports and investment in equipment would have weighed heavily on the expansion of the gross domestic product. He speaks of a "bitter disappointment".
Meanwhile, he cautiously, but not too pessimistic about further development. Although the growth rate has been exceeded and the economic weakness of the neighboring euro area also leaves traces of slippage.
The danger of a continuation of the economic crisis does not exist on the other side either. Private consumption should keep growth on track and investment in equipment would also positively contribute to growth over the coming quarters, despite a less dynamic momentum, says Gitzel. In total, however, the following applies: "The time of Swiss growth is over."
"Zenith exceeded, but continued solid growth"
Even Allessandro Bee, the UBS manager, does not pessimize. "The momentum for growth has actually peaked in the summer, but we expect solid growth in the coming quarters, although it will not be as fast as mid-2017 to mid-2018," he said. did he declare. Above all, the global economic situation has become much more difficult, which should also slow down exports in 2019. Consumption, on the other hand, should accelerate thanks to a better job next year. he.
Claude Maurer, CS economist, is also very optimistic. He assumes that the weakness of foreign trade in the third quarter was temporary. In any case, the forecast remains 2.7% GDP growth for this year. (Sep / SDA)
Created: 29.11.2018, 07:48
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